The global apricot market stands at a pivotal crossroads in 2025, shaped by ambitious modernization efforts among key exporting countries and a period of stable pricing. Tajikistan, long recognized as one of the world’s leading dried apricot exporters, has launched a comprehensive new program to upgrade its industry and enhance export competitiveness. With strategic backing from the FAO, UNIDO, and the Tajik government, this initiative aims to address critical structural challenges—ranging from outdated farming methods to issues of climate resilience and weak market infrastructure. The focus is not only on boosting production, but also on sustainable development and building value throughout the apricot supply chain, particularly in the economically vital regions of Sughd and Khatlon.
Meanwhile, Turkey remains the dominant force in the dried apricot export market, with price trends illustrating a period of calm. Current European market offers show only minimal fluctuations over the past week, suggesting balanced supply and demand dynamics. As global economic conditions, trade policy shifts, and climate developments influence both producers and consumers, industry stakeholders are positioning themselves for the next growth wave. In the sections below, we’ll dive deep into current pricing, supply and demand drivers, weather outlook, and provide a strategic trading forecast.
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Apricots dried
no:8, TR-1123
99,97%
FCA 3.85 €/kg
(from PL)
Apricots dried
Cubes, no - 8
FCA 5.33 €/kg
(from NL)
Apricots dried
Cubes, no - 6
FCA 5.70 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices: Current Market Snapshot
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery Terms | Closing Price (EUR) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried | no:8, TR-1123 | TR | PL (Lodz) | FCA | 3.65 | 0.0 | Neutral |
| Apricots dried | Cubes, no – 8 | TR | NL (Dordrecht) | FCA | 5.38 | +0.9 | Steady to mild bullish |
| Apricots dried | Cubes, no – 6 | TR | NL (Dordrecht) | FCA | 5.75 | +0.9 | Steady to mild bullish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Tajikistan: Industry modernization and sustainability through strong support from FAO/UNIDO. Targeted upgrades in farming and market access expected to enhance efficiency and output, primarily in Sughd and Khatlon regions.
- Turkey: Continues as the largest global supplier of dried apricots. No major supply disruptions reported; new season volumes expected to be stable.
- Demand: European and global consumption remains robust; pandemic-era demand stability has given way to normalization, with some regional price differences reflecting logistics and quality grades.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Production: Turkey and Tajikistan are the top drivers of global dried apricot supply.
- Policy & Investment: UN and government-backed efforts in Tajikistan are expected to attract investment and drive gradual productivity increases.
- Agricultural Challenges: Sector faces hurdles such as aging orchards, lack of tech, and climate risks—modernization projects are aimed at mitigating these risks.
- International Trade: Competitive but stable market, with no major tariffs or disruptions currently in play. Exporters expect growth from improved quality and expanded access.
🌤️ Weather Outlook
- Turkey (Malatya region): Current forecasts show normal seasonal temperatures and adequate rainfall expected over the next three days, supporting favorable harvest expectations.
- Tajikistan (Sughd & Khatlon): Weather outlook indicates mild temperatures and no severe climatic threats in the immediate term; long-term risks from climate change (drought, extreme weather) remain a concern but are being addressed in sector plans.
🌎 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2022/23 Production (est. 1,000 t) | 2023/24 Production (est. 1,000 t) | 2024/25 Outlook | Stock Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Turkey | 800 | 825 | Stable | Ample |
| Tajikistan | 65 | 70 | Higher (pending investment results) | Moderate |
| Uzbekistan | 73 | 75 | Stable | Ample |
| Iran | 60 | 61 | Stable | Moderate |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Stable pricing and modest supply growth favor long-term contracts for buyers seeking price security.
- Producers in Central Asia encouraged to leverage international investment and FAO programs in value chain upgrades.
- Monitor weather risks for late season shifts in Turkey and Tajikistan—prompt action advised if sudden changes arise.
- Exporters should focus on quality improvements and traceability to tap into premium demand in EU markets.
- Short-term: Neutral-to-mildly-bullish sentiment prevails unless weather disrupts harvest or new policy measures emerge.
📊 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market | Current Price (EUR) | 3-Day Forecast (EUR) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| PL (Lodz), Apricots dried no:8, TR-1123 | 3.65 | 3.65 – 3.68 | Stable to slightly positive |
| NL (Dordrecht), Apricots dried Cubes (no-8/6) | 5.38 – 5.75 | 5.40 – 5.80 | Slightly positive |
| TR (Malatya), Unsulphured (FOB) | 5.00 – 5.84 | 5.00 – 5.90 | Stable |