The global dried apricot market has reopened following a 5-day holiday, but participants are greeted by tight stock levels, record high prices, and extraordinary uncertainty regarding upcoming supply. Domestic trading dominates, as lack of stocks severely restricts exports—only old customers receive minimal allocations (4-5 tons per business). Average prices for No. 2 sulphur dried apricots in the local Turkish market stand at 500 TL, and sun-dried at 400 TL, making export EFOB prices in the international market challenging for buyers, particularly with new contracts. Export volumes for the same week plummeted to 179,000 kg, a drastic reduction from last year’s 517,000 kg, underscoring a dire squeeze in supply. Farmers are anxiously awaiting state support after extensive frost damage and are holding back product until clear policy is announced, exacerbating the supply crunch.
There are rumors, yet unconfirmed, of low-quality imports from abroad trying to fill the gap, but these do not match the quality of Turkish origin. Market participants are watching July for clues on the next season’s crop size, yet price clarity may still prove elusive as market fundamentals remain highly challenging. With this backdrop, price volatility, weather impacts, and policy decisions are set to define the coming weeks for the apricot market, both in Turkey, the major origin, and globally.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Apricots dried
no:8, TR-1123
99,97%
FCA 3.42 €/kg
(from PL)
Apricots dried
Cubes, no - 8
FCA 5.47 €/kg
(from NL)
Apricots dried
Cubes, no - 6
FCA 5.84 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Product / Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apricots dried, no:8, TR-1123 | TR | PL, Lodz | FCA | 3.42 | +0.04 | Firm/Higher |
| Apricots dried, Cubes, no – 8 | TR | NL, Dordrecht | FCA | 5.47 | 0.00 | Stable/High |
| Apricots dried, Cubes, no – 6 | TR | NL, Dordrecht | FCA | 5.84 | 0.00 | Stable/Premium |
| Apricots dried, no:5, unsulphured | TR | TR, Malatya | FOB | 5.00 | 0.00 | Sellers Reluctant |
| Apricots dried, no:8, sulphured | TR | TR, Malatya | FOB | 4.00 | 0.00 | Very Tight |
| Apricots dried, premium, >30mm | IR | IR, Tehran | FOB | 2.61 | 0.00 | Lower Quality |
| Apricots dried, jumbo, >30mm | IR | IR, Tehran | FOB | 3.89 | 0.00 | Alternative |
Local Turkish prices (converted): Sulphured No.2: ~14.37 EUR/kg (500 TL), Sun-dried: ~11.50 EUR/kg (400 TL).
Prices on international offers are significantly below those in the Turkish home market due to local scarcity and export bottlenecks.
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Stocks: Severely depleted; domestic buyers active but exports constrained.
- Exports: Down 65% YoY (179,000 kg vs. 517,000 kg week/year).
- Policy: Awaiting state support for frost-affected farmers. Loan postponement and compensation are critical.
- Quality: Non-Turkish imports cited but seen as inferior.
- Domestic Market: High liquidity, but sellers are reluctant and supply is limited.
📊 Fundamentals & Market Drivers
- Weather Damage: Extensive frost in Malatya region hit crop yields hard.
- Speculation: Limited trading, mainly for old customers, supports very firm spot prices.
- Price Inflexibility: Turkish exporters unwilling to commit large volumes at current price levels due to uncertainty over the next harvest and policy.
- Substitutes: Some market talk of imported (Iranian) dried apricots, but quality gap keeps demand directed to Turkish origin.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Implications
- Recent conditions: Late spring frosts (Malatya, Turkey’s key growing area) reduced output estimates dramatically.
- Upcoming weather: Mid-June to early July: Warm, but rain risk remains, which may delay crop development and quality for remaining fruit.
- New Crop: Set to become clearer in July, but risk of further volatility remains due to weather and potential pest pressures.
🌐 Global Production & Trade Flows
- Turkey: Dominates world dried apricot trade. This year: Output forecast down sharply, stocks to finish at multi-year lows.
- Iran: Supplying some lower-priced product; not a full substitute for Turkish quality in EU and premium markets.
- Europe: Buyers face record import prices, many seeking to defer purchases or reduce volumes.
- Global stocks: Likely to approach lowest in a decade, barring a late season increase in Turkish stock-release (policy dependent).
💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect continued tightness until the July crop outlook and state policy support become clear.
- Spot buying is risky; only established customers are receiving allocations.
- Prices for Turkish origin likely to stay firm or rise; international buyers who can accept Iranian origin may achieve better deals but at quality expense.
- Monitor policy statements from Turkish authorities—loan support or intervention may trigger market moves.
- Downside risk is limited unless new-crop recovery or big new stocks are announced in July.
📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Location | Product | Current Price | Forecast (3 days) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL, Lodz (FCA) | Apricots dried, no:8 | 3.42 EUR/kg | 3.42 – 3.45 EUR/kg | Stable to Firm |
| NL, Dordrecht (FCA) | Apricots dried, Cubes, no – 8 | 5.47 EUR/kg | 5.47 – 5.50 EUR/kg | Stable |
| TR, Malatya (FOB) | Apricots dried, no:5, unsulphured | 5.00 EUR/kg | 5.00 – 5.10 EUR/kg | Firm |
