Ups & Down Are Settled Now
Over the past month, the price of cumin has witnessed a notable decline. This shift is attributed to three key factors: Firstly, an expiry pressure of 2500 tonnes in NCDX; secondly, the reduced demand for imported cumin in India led to a surplus in stocks; and thirdly, the market saw an increase in selling pressure as a result of profit-booking following the rise in cumin prices.
However, the market is now stabilizing. The pressure on NCDX stocks has eased, and the stock of imported cumin has significantly decreased. Most stockists have sold their cumin, and emergency stocks have been largely re-exported. This has alleviated pressure on imported jowar stocks as well.
No Rise In Rajasthan
Despite an increase in cumin prices by USD 2,40 or EUR 2,20 per kg, there’s no corresponding rise in Rajasthan’s market, indicating a low stock among farmers and traders. Additionally, the late onset of cold in Rajasthan has impacted cumin germination, influencing sowing patterns and market expectations.
Export Dynamics and Predictions
While the domestic demand for jars (a term used interchangeably with cumin in some contexts) is rising post-Diwali, export activities remain stagnant, though inquiries have begun. Exports, particularly driven by the Ramzan festival, are expected to pick up in December and January. However, a significant export deal with China before the new season seems unlikely due to China’s current economic conditions and a slow local market.
Price Trends and Forecasts
The international market price for Indian cumin currently stands at $5.450 or €4.991 per ton, a decrease from $5.700 or €5.220. This fluctuation is expected to stabilize with prices ranging between $5,10 to 5,70 or € 5,22 per kg for Singapore quality cumin over the next two months.
Outlook on Indian Cumin Market
India remains the primary source for cumin globally. With the upcoming Ramzan festival, the demand from Muslim countries will likely sustain the market, preventing any major price spikes or drops. The late sowing of cumin this year indicates a delayed arrival of the new crop, yet the market remains optimistic, anticipating a balanced supply and demand scenario.
In summary, while there are challenges such as late sowing and international market dynamics, the cumin market in India shows resilience with a stable outlook for the near future. The focus is now shifting towards the upcoming crop and its potential impact on both domestic and international markets.