Argentine Policy Tilts Corn Market: Prices, Global Impacts & Supply Outlook

The corn market stands at a critical juncture in mid-2025 as Argentine farmers, one of the world’s leading producers, shift their focus from soybeans to corn. This move comes in response to a challenging domestic tax environment that heavily favors corn over soy due to significant export tariff differentials. As farmers in Argentina prepare for the 2025/26 planting season, many are incentivized by a 12% export tax on corn as opposed to 33% for soybeans—reshaping crop planning and impacting global supply expectations. Despite relatively subdued international grain prices and dry margins, the prospective increase in corn-planted area, alongside robust weather forecasts, suggests that Argentina will remain a major force in the global corn trade.

However, looming economic pressures, especially on tenant farmers, means financial risks are rising. Argentina’s policy roadmap in the coming year could profoundly shape both local livelihoods and the international grain market, especially amidst calls for tax reforms and improved competitiveness. For traders and market participants, understanding these evolving on-the-ground dynamics is essential for informed decision-making.

📈 Prices

Commodity	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (€/kg)	Previous Price (€/kg)	Price Date	Sentiment
Popcorn	expansion, 40/42	Argentina	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.81	0.82	2025-07-09	Bearish
Corn	yellow	France	Paris	FOB	0.25	0.26	2025-07-09	Bearish
Corn	starch	India	New Delhi	FOB	1.95	1.97	2025-07-09	Bearish
Corn		Ukraine	Odesa	FOB	0.20	0.20	2025-07-09	Stable
Popcorn		Brazil	Dordrecht (NL)	FCA	0.74	0.74	2025-07-04	Stable
Corn	yellow feed grade, 14.5% moisture, 98% purity	Ukraine	Odesa	FCA	0.25	0.25	2025-07-03	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Argentine planting shift: Farmers are expected to plant more corn and less soybeans due to lower export taxes and better relative returns for corn. This could raise Argentina’s corn output and boost exportable supply.
• Policy: Argentina applies 12% export tax on corn vs. 33% on soybeans, skewing producer incentives. Farmers, especially those leasing land (60%+ of growers), are facing thin margins, and calls for reform continue.
• Production Targets: 2024/25 Argentine total grain output forecast at 136 million metric tons, with corn over 49 million tons possible if favorable weather persists.
• Global Market: Subdued corn and soybean prices increase financial stress for Argentine producers. International competitiveness, especially relative to Brazil, is an ongoing concern.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money remains net short across major corn bourses amid ample global inventories.

📊 Fundamentals

Country	2024/25 Corn Output (mmt)	2024/25 Stocks (mmt)	Export Share (%)
USA	389	54	36
China	285	203	~3
Brazil	124	13	20
Argentina	49	7	12
Ukraine	30	2	7

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Argentina: Current forecasts call for seasonally favorable temperatures and good soil moisture across most major corn-growing regions during planting (Sept–Nov). This supports strong yield potential for 2025/26 if sustained.
• Brazil: Southern Brazil faces variable rainfall, but is expected to maintain steady corn output.
• US Midwest: Moderate July heat and sporadic showers could cap yield increases but do not threaten a major crop loss scenario.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

• Argentina’s share of world corn exports will likely rise in 2025, offsetting Brazil’s brisk pace and solid US shipments.
• China remains the largest producer but a minor exporter; its stocks absorb world supply volatility.
• The US remains the price setter, but weather risk and policy changes could shift market balance with increased Argentine output.

⚡ Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Use recent price softness as a potential entry point—subdued prices and robust supply outlook in Argentina support buying on dips.
• Sellers: Monitor policy signals in Argentina—any move to reduce corn export taxes could further incentivize planting, strengthening the downtrend in global prices. Hedge forward contracts accordingly.
• Traders: Watch US summer weather and Argentine government statements for possible volatility triggers ahead of harvest.
• All: Maintain risk controls as high tenant exposure in Argentina raises the risk of unexpected shifts due to policy or credit action.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Current Price (€/kg)	Forecast (€/kg)	Trend
Paris (FR)	0.25	0.24–0.25	Soft/Stable
Odesa (UA)	0.20 – 0.25	0.19–0.25	Stable
Buenos Aires (AR, Popcorn)	0.81	0.80–0.81	Soft