Seasonal Lull Cools Almond Prices as Indian Demand Softens

Almond prices are under mild downward pressure as the seasonal summer lull in Indian dry-fruit demand weighs on both in-shell nuts and kernels, even as global supply fundamentals remain broadly balanced. Almond trading has shifted into a quieter phase with the onset of hot weather in India. Retail appetite for energy-dense dry fruits is softening, prompting sellers in Delhi to trim offers on California in-shell almonds and kernels. For European importers, the adjustment signals weaker pull from India rather than any structural change in global supply, with California still the key origin. Recent offers for US and Spanish kernels in Europe also show a modest easing, pointing to a market that is correcting from previously elevated levels rather than entering a sharp downturn.

Prices & Spreads

In the Delhi market, benchmark California in-shell almonds have fallen by roughly EUR 4.90–5.00 to about EUR 240–250 per 40 kg equivalent, while almond kernels (giri) eased by approximately EUR 0.09–0.29 to around EUR 8.40–8.80 per kg, using prevailing FX conversions from USD levels mentioned in local trade. European-facing offers also indicate gentle softening. US origin Carmel SSR kernels 18/20 and 20/22 are currently around EUR 6.10–6.15/kg FAS Washington, slipping about EUR 0.05/kg over recent weeks, while organic Nonpareil 27/30 hovers near EUR 8.60–8.70/kg FOB. Spanish Marcona and Valencia kernels out of Madrid show similar marginal declines of roughly EUR 0.05/kg across key sizes, with Guara and Valencia grades now clustering between EUR 5.00 and 6.00/kg FOB.

Supply & Demand

The current price softening is driven primarily by demand, not supply. In India, high temperatures typically curb consumption of rich dry fruits, and this seasonal pattern is repeating as buyers step back after previous price increases. With no major festival or wedding season in the immediate pipeline, trade volumes in Delhi and other Indian hubs are thinner, forcing sellers to shave offers to clear existing stocks. On the supply side, there is no sign yet of a major disruption. California remains the dominant supplier to India and a cornerstone for Europe, with the latest official 2026 crop forecast around 2.70 billion pounds on a shelled basis, only slightly below last season and broadly in line with trade expectations. This supports a picture of adequate availability rather than tightness.

Fundamentals & Weather

Fundamentals across the dry-fruit complex are mixed. Some items are easing on thin off-season demand, while a few hold firmer on restricted spot availability, but almonds currently lean to the softer side. The recent pullback follows a period of firmer prices, leaving some importers and retailers well covered and more cautious about adding inventory at elevated levels. Weather in California is being closely watched but is not yet market-defining. After a challenging bloom period earlier in the season, the official crop estimate still implies a broadly balanced global supply backdrop. Localized disease and weather concerns are present but currently seen as manageable, keeping the focus on demand trends in major consuming countries rather than on an imminent supply shock.

Short-Term Outlook

In the near term, the summer lull in Indian demand is likely to persist, capping any immediate price recovery. Without festival or wedding-driven buying, sellers in Delhi may need to maintain slightly softer quotes to keep product moving, especially for standard grades of California in-shell and kernels. For European buyers, the key signal is that recent easing is more a reflection of seasonal Asian demand than of structural oversupply. If spot stocks in India or other Asian markets tighten unexpectedly, or if new information points to a smaller-than-expected California crop, the current decline could stall and give way to a steadier undertone into late summer.

Trading Recommendations

• Importers in Europe: Use the current mild dip to secure partial cover for Q3 needs, focusing on standard US Nonpareil and Carmel grades, while avoiding over-commitment ahead of clearer 2026 crop and demand signals.
• Indian buyers and traders: Consider staggered purchases during the summer lull, taking advantage of softer spot prices but preserving flexibility should demand rebound ahead of the next festival cycle.
• California and Spanish shippers: Maintain a steady offer stance, accepting small concessions for nearby shipments into India and the Middle East, but avoid aggressive discounting given still-balanced global fundamentals.

3-Day Regional Price Indication (Directional)