Asian Flour Millers Drive Global Wheat Market as U.S. Exports Surge Amid Black Sea Disruptions

The global wheat market is experiencing a significant shift as Asian flour millers boost their purchases of U.S. wheat, responding to both supply disruptions from the Black Sea region and strong U.S. pricing. Delays in Russian and Ukrainian shipments—exacerbated by logistical issues and adverse weather—have pushed importers like Bangladesh, Indonesia, and Vietnam to secure U.S. cargoes well ahead of the region’s peak demand seasons. With the USDA forecasting higher U.S. wheat export volumes for 2025–26 and Asian millers now seeking diversification to ensure quality and food security, American wheat is increasingly displacing Black Sea origins in key Southeast Asian markets.

This momentum is likely to persist, supported by robust forward bookings and growing demand forecasts. Meanwhile, wheat prices in Europe and the U.S. remain competitive, even as weather uncertainties loom over future harvest yields. Altogether, these developments underscore the heightened volatility and opportunity shaping the global wheat landscape as we move into the final quarter of 2025.

📈 Prices & Market Sentiment

Exchange/Location	Type	Protein	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
UA – Kyiv	Wheat	9.50%	0.22	0.00	Neutral
UA – Odesa	Wheat	9.50%	0.23	-0.01	Slightly Bearish
UA – Kyiv	Wheat	11.50%	0.24	0.00	Neutral
UA – Odesa	Wheat	11.50%	0.25	0.00	Neutral
US – CBOT	Wheat	11.50%	0.23	0.00	Stable
FR – Paris	Wheat	11.00%	0.29	0.00	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Asian buying shifts: Bangladesh (2.5 million tonnes), Indonesia (0.5 million tonnes), Vietnam (expected 50,000 tonnes) purchase U.S. wheat for Q4 2025 delivery.
• Black Sea delays: Russian and Ukrainian wheat faces continuing logistical and weather-related disruptions, extending delivery windows and raising reliability concerns.
• USDA export forecast: U.S. wheat exports projected at 24.5 million tonnes (2025–26), up from 23.5 million tonnes on robust Asian demand.
• Diversification: Southeast Asian millers are moving away from single-origin reliance, favoring U.S. wheat for quality and food security.
• South/Southeast Asia demand: Flour mill associations expect annual wheat import growth by 10–12 million tonnes through 2030.

📊 Fundamentals & Inventory Comparison

• U.S. is poised to regain share in Asian markets with higher quality and timely logistics.
• Global wheat stocks remain tighter than average, with Russian and Ukrainian inventories facing shipment bottlenecks.
• French and EU wheat remain a stable but pricier alternative to U.S. offers (FR wheat at EUR 0.29/kg FOB).

Country/Region	2025 Production (m t)	Estimated Stocks (m t)	Exportable Surplus (m t)
U.S.	49	16	24.5
Russia	88	17	30
Ukraine	22	3	12
EU	130	14	36
Bangladesh/Indonesia/Vietnam (Importers, 2025 est.)	n/a	n/a	17

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Black Sea region: Recent spells of heavy rains and flooding have slowed port loadings in Russia and Ukraine, delaying shipments and compressing export windows.
• U.S. Plains: Stable to slightly drier than normal conditions; harvest progress is on schedule, and early reports indicate average yields and good grain quality.
• Western Europe: Mixed outlook, with periodic rainfalls threatening drying in some French/German wheat zones. Watch harvest completion and protein levels in the coming weeks.

Weather-induced logistics and yield risk remain heightened in the Black Sea, while North America and Western Europe trend closer to seasonal normals.

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Importers: Given ongoing Black Sea delays and steady U.S. offers, consider forward-booking U.S. wheat for Q4 and Q1 deliveries at current prices.
• Exporters: U.S./EU sellers can leverage supply chain reliability in negotiations; Black Sea shippers should monitor potential escalation of logistics risk.
• Speculators: Wheat futures may remain rangebound in the near-term but could respond sharply to any weather disruptions—especially in the Black Sea.
• End-users: Monitor evolving freight and insurance costs for Black Sea origins; volatility likely to persist through harvest and export peaks.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

• CBOT (US): Likely to remain in the EUR 0.23–0.24/kg range as harvest and export flows stabilize.
• Euronext (Paris, FR): Price stability expected at EUR 0.29/kg amid balanced EU and export demand.
• Black Sea (UA, RU): Some downward pressure possible on local spot prices due to slow port flows—UA FOB likely EUR 0.20–0.22/kg.