The global potato market is experiencing a notable transformation, with Azerbaijan emerging as a key regional supplier in 2025. From January to July, Azerbaijan’s potato exports soared to 70,830 tones—an astonishing 47% year-on-year increase. Export earnings reached USD 28.1 million, up 37% over the same period last year. Crucially, this spike is not just a function of demand in Russia, Azerbaijan’s traditional trade partner. For the first time, a significant share of exports is being absorbed by Belarus, Ukraine, Georgia, and Kazakhstan, all exhibiting triple-digit growth rates in both volume and value. This diversification marks a strategic shift for Azerbaijan’s potato industry, lessening its dependence on a single market and leveraging strong regional demand.
Analysts attribute this growth to higher consumption patterns throughout Eastern Europe and Central Asia, coupled with favorable government incentives and improved logistics. The expanded export map, alongside steady product pricing, signals robust health for both the farming and trading sectors—despite headwinds from shifting weather patterns and global logistics challenges. The resilience and adaptability shown by Azerbaijan expose new dynamics in the potato trade, setting a positive outlook for the remainder of the year and beyond.
📈 Potato Prices at a Glance
| Product | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Date Updated | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Potato starch | PL | Lodz, Poland | FCA | 1.01 | 1.01 | 2025-09-22 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Total Exports (Jan–Jul 2025): 70,830 tonnes (+47% vs 2024)
- Total Export Value: USD 28.1 million (+37% vs 2024)
- Top Destinations:
- Russia: 59,376 tonnes, USD 22.7m (+40% volume, +24% value)
- Belarus: 5,693 tonnes, USD 3.15m (2.7× volume, 3× value)
- Ukraine: 4,394 tonnes, USD 1.8m (+50% volume, +95% value)
- Georgia: 1,000 tonnes, USD 303k (+52% volume, +49% value)
- Kazakhstan: 214 tonnes, USD 85.4k (5× volume, 5× value)
- Compared to 2024, Russia’s dominance declined from 88% to ~84% of exports, while the role of Belarus and Ukraine expanded sharply.
- Rising demand outside Russia—especially in Ukraine and Belarus—diversifies Azerbaijan’s trade base and spreads market risk.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Steady contract and spot prices reflect balanced regional supplies and storage confidence, with no significant volatility seen in European potato starch pricing (EUR 1.01/kg, unchanged week-on-week).
- Speculative interest in potato futures in Europe remains low due to the stable supply outlook and few production scares.
- Azerbaijan’s export upswing signals robust domestic stocks and competitive prices versus regional producers.
- Improved logistics and government export support contribute to competitiveness.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- Azerbaijan: Moderate temperatures and favorable rainfall in Q2–Q3 2025 have supported crop yield, with localized irrigation mitigating summer dry spells.
- Russia and Belarus: Short-term forecasts show normal precipitation and temperatures, sustaining storage quality and late-harvest operations.
- Ukraine: Adequate soil moisture and mild summer weather point to stable yields; risks limited to isolated hailstorm damage.
Overall, weather risks are minor, supporting stable production and unimpeded export flows for the coming quarter.
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2025 Export Volume (Jan–Jul) | Annualized Change (%) | Main Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Azerbaijan | 70,830 t | +47% | Russia, Belarus, Ukraine |
| Russia | n/a | Stable | Azerbaijan, Local |
| Belarus | n/a | Increasing | Local, Import from AZ |
| Ukraine | n/a | Rebounding | Local, Import from AZ |
Azerbaijan outpaces its immediate neighbors in export growth and market diversification, positioning itself as a regional trade hub.
📆 Trading & Market Outlook
- Monitor demand shifts in Central Asian markets as regional diversification reduces single-market risk.
- Expect further price stability in the next quarter as harvests and storage remain robust in main growing areas.
- Exporters: Consider expanding logistics and certification for new markets (e.g., Belarus, Ukraine) to capitalize on surging demand.
- Traders: Favor continued long/hold positions on quality potato contracts in Europe and the Caspian region due to muted weather and logistics risks.
- End-users: Secure contracts early for Q4–Q1 delivery to safeguard against possible year-end logistics slowdowns.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Product | Current Price | Forecast Range | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lodz (PL) | Potato Starch | EUR 1.01/kg | EUR 1.00–1.02/kg | Stable, minimal volatility expected |
| Baku (AZ) | Fresh Potatoes (est.) | USD 0.30/kg | USD 0.29–0.32/kg | Supported by strong export flow |
