Banana Market Set for Upswing Amid Colombia-U.S. Tariff Negotiations and Steady Global Prices

The global banana market stands at a critical juncture as Colombia, a leading Latin American supplier, has initiated high-stakes negotiations with the United States to secure tariff-free access for key fruit exports, especially bananas. Colombian bananas currently face a 10% U.S. tariff, rendering them less competitive against suppliers enjoying preferential rates. Colombia is aiming to bring this rate down to zero, a move expected to significantly boost export revenues, enhance market share, and elevate local incomes for producers in fruit-growing regions. With bananas and other fruits constituting 24.6% of Colombia’s exports to the U.S. and comprising 65.2% of non-mineral energy export earnings, the stakes are high—not just for exporters but for the broader agricultural sector.

Latest trade statistics reveal a 4.1% year-on-year dip in Colombia’s exports to the U.S. in July 2025, amplifying the importance of securing better access. Agricultural products represent over a quarter of that total. Officials project that successful talks could position Colombia as a more dominant banana supplier to the U.S., diversify its export portfolio, and compensate for revenue losses amid a tight global market.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Closing Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Banana dried chips (whole)	Vietnam	Hanoi, VN	FOB	3.53	0.00	Stable
Banana dried chips (whole, organic)	Philippines	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.79	0.00	Stable
Banana dried chips (broken)	Philippines	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	1.77	0.00	Balanced
Banana dried chips (whole)	Philippines	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.30	0.00	Balanced

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• U.S.-Colombia tariff negotiations: Potential reduction of banana tariffs from 10% to 0% could shift import patterns and improve Colombian competitiveness.
• Stable Asian and global supply: Vietnam and the Philippines maintain consistent dried banana chip offerings, stabilizing European prices.
• Demand outlook: North American and European food processors report steady to slightly growing demand, supported by snack trends and processed foods.
• Production constraints: Crop disease risks (e.g., Panama Disease TR4) and climate factors continue to hover as potential supply disruptors, especially in key Asian growing regions.
• Speculative activity: Limited speculative positioning in processed banana products, but fresh market could see surges if Colombian access improves.

📊 Global Fundamentals

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2024/25 Exports (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt)
Ecuador	7.1	6.5	0.6
Philippines	5.0	2.6	0.3
Colombia	3.6	1.8	0.2
Guatemala	2.1	1.6	0.2
India (mainly domestic)	31.0	0.1	2.2

Note: Ecuador remains the top global exporter, but developments in Colombia may shift longer-term market shares. The EU and U.S. dominate the import landscape.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Latin America: Current outlook is neutral to wet for Colombia and Ecuador. Recent moderate rains have replenished soil moisture. Short-term risk of local flooding in some Andean regions; no immediate threat to ongoing harvests.
• Southeast Asia: Philippines forecasts slightly above-average rainfall, potentially boosting banana yields, but monitoring continues for cyclonic disruptions.
• Potential impact: Weather risk remains moderate; no critical alerts. Disease and logistics (port disruptions) are a secondary watch point for the September/October period.

📆 Trading & Strategy Outlook

• Monitor Colombia-U.S. tariff talks; a regulatory breakthrough could trigger a fresh demand wave for Colombian bananas in the U.S. market.
• Importers locking in current prices benefit from stable supply in Asia and Latin America.
• Short-term price movements likely limited; longer-term upward pressure possible if Colombian tariff cut materializes.
• Weather-driven volatility appears contained but monitor disease reports in SE Asia and logistics issues in Andean ports.
• Consider regional supply diversification for risk mitigation as demand for processed banana snacks continues to grow.

🔮 3-Day Price Forecast — Key Regional Hubs

Location	Product	Forecast Price (EUR/kg)	Trend
Hanoi, VN	Banana dried chips (whole)	3.53	Stable
Dordrecht, NL	Banana dried chips (whole, organic)	2.79	Stable
Dordrecht, NL	Banana dried chips (broken)	1.77	Stable
Dordrecht, NL	Banana dried chips (whole)	2.30	Stable

Stable pricing seen across the main trade lanes, with only limited potential for short-term volatility barring unexpected weather or policy events.