The Bangladeshi mango sector is in the midst of a remarkable transformation, shifting from traditional rice farming to become one of the nation’s fastest-growing fruit industries. Nowhere is this more evident than in Naogaon district, the country’s mango heartland, where plantation area has soared over fivefold since 2015 and annual output approaches 400,000 tons—valued at roughly US$270 million. Rural prosperity is rising: where paddy once generated limited returns and strained local water resources, mangoes now fetch farmers up to 10 times higher incomes and fuel regional land price spikes.
Yet, this success story faces pressing headwinds. Soaring input and lease costs, coupled with heavy pest infestations (notably thrips), are decimating profit margins. While the sector’s reputation for GAP-certified, toxin-free crops holds export promise—exemplified by growers plotting sales to Europe—the reality is that less than 1% of production is exported due to steep air freight costs and infrastructural gaps. Up to 30% of mangoes are lost post-harvest amid calls for urgent cold-chain expansion and processing investment. As Bangladesh looks to emulate Vietnam’s value-added product push, robust intervention will be critical to realize export and income potential in the face of mounting challenges.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Mango dried
chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm MOISTURE 13 – 19 %
FOB 5.60 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
slices: 5 – 9 cm. Chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm
FOB 5.80 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
normal sugar, 8-10 mm
FCA 4.55 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | Location | Delivery | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mango dried | Chunks: 2–3 cm, 2–15 mm thick, MOISTURE 13–19% | Vietnam | Hanoi, VN | FOB | 5.6 | 0 | Stable, weak spot activity |
| Mango dried | Slices: 5–9 cm, Chunks: 2–3 cm, 2–15 mm thick | Vietnam | Hanoi, VN | FOB | 5.8 | 0 | Stable, tight FOB supply |
| Mango dried | Normal sugar, 8–10 mm | Thailand | Dordrecht, NL | FCA | 4.55 | 0 | No change, weak EU imports |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Production: Bangladesh harvested 400,000 tons of mangoes in 2024 (+>5x since 2015).
- Switch in Crops: Widespread move from paddy to mango cultivation for better water efficiency and returns.
- Land Value: Land prices have surged in key areas like Sapahar as the mango sector expands.
- Export Dynamics: Only 2,167 tons exported (by August 2025), mainly due to high freight costs and limited air cargo infrastructure.
- Post-Harvest Losses: 30% of production lost annually—calls for cold-chain and processing investment are growing.
📊 Fundamentals
- Input Costs: Pesticide outlays have escalated from US$45–90 to US$225–270 per bigha since 2015.
- Lease Rates: 12-year lease rates have tripled, squeezing grower margins.
- Profits: Amrapali variety once yielded US$900–1,350 per bigha; now, profits are markedly lower due to costs/pests.
- Market Fees: Exporters face depot charges, local tolls, and the dholan system, all chipping away at profitability.
- Speculative Position: Domestic buyers remain cautious, while processors seek value-added opportunities reminiscent of Vietnam’s transformation.
☀️ Weather Outlook & Pest Pressure
- Recent Weather: Favorable pre-monsoon showers in Naogaon aided fruit set, but sustained humidity raised disease/pest risks.
- Pest Infestations: For the third year, thrips outbreaks blacken fruit and diminish market value. Current pesticides are largely ineffective.
- Upcoming Forecast (Naogaon/major regions): Warm, partly cloudy conditions expected, with minimal rainfall for 5–7 days—this aids harvest but prolongs pest survival on late varieties.
🌐 Production & Stock Comparison (2024/25)
| Country | Total Output (Tons) | Export Share (%) | Main Destinations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bangladesh | 400,000 | <1 | UAE, UK, Saudi Arabia |
| India | 23,000,000 | ~4 | UAE, US, EU, SE Asia |
| Pakistan | 1,800,000 | ~8 | Middle East, EU, China |
| Vietnam | 936,000 | 10 | China, Russia, Korea |
| Mexico | 2,300,000 | 18 | US, EU, Canada |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🟢 Short-term: Weak demand in EU; prices stable but pressure remains from high costs and strong output in Vietnam/Thailand.
- 🟠 Medium-term: Bangladesh could stabilize exports if cold-chain and processing investments progress. Vietnam’s jam/pulp playbook is a model to watch.
- 🔴 Risks: Pest management gaps, freight costs, and market fees continue to threaten farmer margins and export competitiveness.
- Action Points:
- Exporters: Explore value-added mango products to tap new markets.
- Growers: Focus on integrated pest management and seek out GAP certifications.
- Policy: Support for cargo logistics, post-harvest handling, and fair market practices highly recommended.
- Traders: Monitor weather, regional crop news, and freight rate volatility for timing large purchases.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg)
| Product/Origin | Today | +1 Day | +2 Days | +3 Days | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dried Mango, Vietnam FOB | 5.6–5.8 | 5.6–5.8 | 5.5–5.8 | 5.5–5.8 | Stable to slightly weak |
| Dried Mango, Thailand FCA NL | 4.55 | 4.55 | 4.50–4.55 | 4.50–4.55 | No change |
