Bangladesh Opens Door to U.S. Wheat: Market Stabilizes as Global Competition Heats Up

Amidst persistent volatility in the global wheat market, Bangladesh’s decision to approve imports of U.S. wheat marks a pivotal shift, with broad implications for supply chains, regional demand, and pricing. After several years of trade restrictions, the Bangladeshi Food Ministry has officially authorized the purchase of 220,000 tons of U.S. wheat, valued at approximately USD 90 million, aimed at stabilizing local flour prices and diversifying import sources. This strategic move responds to rising import costs due to geopolitical tensions and freight disruptions impacting previous main suppliers, including Russia, Canada, Ukraine, and India. With domestic wheat consumption approaching 7 million tons annually and flour prices surging, Bangladesh’s market intervention is set to ease supply constraints by the end of the year.

U.S. wheat, currently priced at USD 359 per ton (with freight around USD 50 per ton), stands out as a competitive alternative, matching strict phytosanitary and quality standards. This diversification not only helps stabilize Bangladesh’s internal markets but also enhances the country’s bargaining position in future tenders, fostering price competitiveness. Overall, this development is expected to support global market balance, with the U.S. reinforcing its exporter profile. Nevertheless, weather volatility, production prospects, and ongoing geopolitical risks continue to cast uncertainty over wheat price dynamics globally.

📈 Prices

Origin	Protein (%)	Purity (%)	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Sentiment
US (CBOT)	11.50	98	Washington D.C.	FOB	0.21	0.21	0%	Neutral
France (Euronext)	11.00	98	Paris	FOB	0.27	0.27	0%	Neutral
Ukraine	11.00	98	Odesa	FOB	0.19	0.19	0%	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Global Wheat Production: The USDA projects 2025/26 global wheat production to reach modest growth, though weather setbacks in the Black Sea and North America remain a concern.
• Bangladesh Switching Sources: By approving U.S. imports, Bangladesh aims to secure 1.5 million tons by March 2026, reducing dependence on Russia and Ukraine amidst ongoing regional risks.
• Trade Flows: This diversification is likely to open further tenders to multiple exporters, increasing competition and promoting price stability in the region.
• Import Numbers: Bangladesh has imported roughly 3.6 million tons this year—down from 4.3 million tons in 2024—indicating cautious procurement as prices stay firm.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports & Inventories: Recent USDA WASDE updates show global stocks-to-use ratios remain tight, with continued volatility expected through year-end.
• Speculative Positioning: Managed money and hedge funds remain net long in wheat futures, reflecting concerns over ongoing weather risk and tight exporter inventories.
• Freight & Logistics: Freight rates for U.S. wheat are relatively favorable, maintaining competitiveness despite persistent disruptions in the Black Sea corridor.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• North America: Recent updates indicate average precipitation in the U.S. Midwest, supporting wheat maturation. However, some dryness persists in key exporting states (Kansas, Oklahoma).
• Black Sea Region: Dry, hot spells in southern Russia and Ukraine continue; forecasts show some rainfall but not enough to fully alleviate moisture deficits, risking further yield reductions.
• Europe: France and Germany expect near-normal conditions, supporting stable production forecasts.
• South Asia: Bangladesh expects favorable harvest weather, boosting domestic resilience ahead of large-scale U.S. arrivals.

🌐 World Production & Stocks (Major Exporters/Importers)

Country	2025 Production (Mt)	2025 Stocks (Mt)
USA	50.5	17.3
Russia	83.5	18.1
EU	132.0	14.5
Ukraine	22.5	3.8
India	106.0	10.0
Bangladesh	1.1	1.3
China	136.0	101.0

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor further import tenders from Bangladesh, which could set the tone for regional price direction.
• Consider price volatility in Black Sea and North American markets as weather risk remains elevated.
• Price stabilization is expected in Q4 if major importers like Bangladesh continue to diversify.
• Short-term trading: Rangebound moves likely given stable physical prices and balanced international offers.
• Physical buyers advised to lock in volumes for late-2025 delivery to hedge against further freight or weather disruptions.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	0.21	0.21 – 0.22	Cautiously Bullish
Euronext (FR)	0.27	0.27 – 0.28	Steady
Odesa (UA)	0.19	0.19 – 0.20	Steady