The global mango market is on the cusp of notable shifts as Bangladesh embarks on a high-profile entry into the lucrative Chinese market. Backed by a robust domestic harvest of approximately 2.7 million tones in 2025, Bangladesh aims to export at least 5,000 tones of fresh mangoes to China, symbolizing not only trade expansion but also enhanced recognition of its “green and high-quality” Ganges Delta fruit. The maiden shipment’s ceremonial send-off signals fresh opportunities—the move coincides with the 50th anniversary of China-Bangladesh diplomatic relations and could foster greater rural value addition, jobs, and industrial upgrades. However, the road to long-term export success is complex.
Newcomers must rise to the challenge of fierce competition from established exporters in Southeast Asia and Latin America. For Bangladeshi growers and traders, steady supply, superior postharvest handling, and compliance with stringent Chinese phytosanitary regulations will be vital. Premium mangoes command strong prices (USD 2.50–3.50/kg) in Chinese wholesale markets, but realizing this potential depends on consistent quality and supply chain investment, particularly in cold logistics and advanced packaging. As the mango market pivots, Bangladesh’s next moves—plus evolving weather conditions—will have regional and global resonance, with other fruits like guava and jackfruit also on the horizon for China-bound trade.
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Mango dried
chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm MOISTURE 13 – 19 %
FOB 5.62 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
slices: 5 – 9 cm. Chunks: : 2 – 3 cm. Thickness: 2 mm. – 15 mm
FOB 5.85 €/kg
(from VN)
Mango dried
normal sugar, 8-10 mm
FCA 4.57 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Latest Mango Prices
| Product | Origin | Market | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mango dried (chunks, 2–3 cm, 13–19% moisture) | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 5.62 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Mango dried (slices/chunks, 2–9 cm, 2–15 mm thick) | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 5.85 | 0.00 | Stable |
| Mango dried (normal sugar, 8–10 mm) | Thailand | Dordrecht (NL) | FCA | 4.55 | 0.00 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics
- Bangladesh: Estimated 2025 production of 2.7 million tonnes; targeting 5,000 tonnes for China, with strong growth ambitions.
- China: Domestic demand for premium mangoes is high; current retail prices for imported mangoes at USD 2.50–3.50/kg.
- Competition: Thailand, Vietnam, Philippines, Pakistan, and Peru dominate Chinese imports, benefiting from either proximity or trade deals.
- Supply Chain Factors: Strict phytosanitary requirements and need for advanced cold chain and packaging solutions may limit Bangladesh’s immediate export volume but present scope for market entry improvement if addressed.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Export Milestone: First official shipment to China marks a diplomatic and economic milestone.
- Price Outlook: Bangladeshi mangoes seek the upper end of the import price range by emphasizing organic and low-chemical practices.
- Quality Strategies: Adoption of Chinese bagging technology in Rajshahi to enhance quality, targeting premium buyers.
- Challenges: Long-term success hinges on compliance with Chinese import and food safety regulations.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact
- Bangladesh (Rajshahi & Ganges Delta): Recent monsoon activity has provided favorable soil moisture. Forecast over the next 14 days indicates typical monsoonal weather—intermittent rain, temperatures 29–34°C—ideal for fruit set and development, but risk of localized flooding may disrupt harvest logistics.
- Thailand and Vietnam: Weather is seasonally stable, with minor dry spells supporting good ripening conditions for mango harvest.
- China (Key Import Ports): No major weather disruptions reported; demand expected to remain firm as fresh shipments boost market offerings.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country | 2025 Production Estimate (mn tonnes) | Policy/Status | Key Export Markets |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | ~23.0 | Global leader; limited to processed exports | Middle East, EU |
| Mexico | ~2.3 | Top fresh exporter | USA, EU |
| Thailand | ~3.3 | Major Asian supplier | China, Japan, South Korea |
| Bangladesh | 2.7 | Expanding export focus | Middle East, EU, China (new) |
| Vietnam | 0.9 | Major player for dried/premium | China, global |
| Pakistan | ~1.7 | Strong in Gulf/China markets | Middle East, China |
📆 Mango Market Trading Outlook
- Bangladeshi exporters: Focus on meeting China’s strict quality and phytosanitary standards to achieve premium pricing and secure repeat buyers.
- Invest in cold chain and packaging improvements; partner with logistics specialists to ensure shipment integrity and quality retention during transport.
- Monitor competition: Remain attentive to price movements and supply from Southeast Asian suppliers, adjusting positioning strategies as needed.
- Importers in China/EU: Assess the reliability of new Bangladeshi supply; trial runs of smaller volumes may reduce risk.
- Industrial processors: Rising supply from Bangladesh and Vietnam may present opportunities for dried and value-added mango products at steady prices.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (EUR/kg)
| Market/Origin | Product Type | Day 1 | Day 2 | Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | Mango dried, premium | 5.85 | 5.85 | 5.85 |
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | Mango dried, standard | 5.62 | 5.62 | 5.62 |
| Thailand (Dordrecht) | Mango dried, normal sugar | 4.55 | 4.55 | 4.55 |