Barley Market Analysis: Stability Amid Supply & Weather Watch

The global barley market in mid-June 2025 is demonstrating rare calm, with prices holding steady across primary origins and on futures exchanges. While major contracts on the SFE (Sydney Futures Exchange) have shown no movement over the past week, market participants are closely observing both weather developments in key producing regions and evolving global demand trends. Although old-crop and new-crop barley offers from Ukraine remain unchanged, uncertainty persists given ongoing weather risks in the Black Sea, North America, and Western Europe.

Stable feed barley prices indicate adequate near-term supply, while looming questions about 2025/26 yields, Ukrainian export disruptions, and Chinese buying intentions continue to cast a shadow on the outlook. Recent USDA and IGC reports suggest robust ending stocks and steady trade, but climate volatility and macroeconomic influences demand ongoing vigilance from market actors. As we enter the crucial pollination and grain-fill period, the next few weeks will be pivotal for setting price direction in the global barley complex.

📈 Barley Prices at Key Exchanges

Exchange	Contract	Closing Price	Weekly Change	Sentiment
SFE (Australia)	Jul 25	310.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral
SFE (Australia)	Sep 25	310.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral
SFE (Australia)	Nov 25	310.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral
SFE (Australia)	Jan 26	315.00 AUD/t	0.00%	Neutral
Ukraine (Odesa, FOB)	Spot	0.21 EUR/kg	0.00%	Neutral
Ukraine (Odesa, FCA)	Spot	0.24 EUR/kg	0.00%	Neutral
Ukraine (Kyiv, FCA)	Spot	0.23 EUR/kg	0.00%	Neutral

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• USDA/IGC Reports: Recent global barley outlooks show adequate ending stocks and stable trade volumes.
• Ukrainian Exports: Black Sea routes are open but monitoring for logistical/border issues; offers show stable FOB/FCA prices.
• Chinese Demand: Remains the single most significant export wildcard, as buying is sporadic but sizable.
• EU & Australia Crop Prospects: Favourable planting conditions, but summer weather is critical to final yields.

📊 Market Fundamentals

Country	2024 Prod. (MT)	2025 Est. Prod. (MT)	2025 Ending Stocks (MT)
EU	52.2	53.0	8.6
Russia	22.0	22.8	2.4
Ukraine	5.8	6.2	1.3
Australia	14.5	14.7	1.6
China (Import)	9.5*	9.8*	1.1

*China is listed as a major importer

⛅ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Ukraine/Black Sea: Mixed rainfall—adequate for most winter barley, but dryness is now a short-term concern. Grain fill could suffer if the dry spell extends.
• Australia: Sowing is complete, early rains are good, but some dryness in WA and SA is emerging in forecasts. Watch for cold snaps/frost risk.
• EU: Good subsoil moisture across France/Germany, with mild temps, but summer precipitation patterns will be decisive for malting barley.
• Russia/Kazakhstan: Above-average temperatures and patchy rainfall are noted, but key southern areas remain mostly favourable.

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term, expect continued price stability on feed barley, unless weather or Black Sea logistics deteriorate.
• Monitor weather in Ukraine/Australia in the next two weeks; any prolonged dryness or frost risk could prompt sharp price corrections.
• Watch for possible purchasing activity from China, especially if global wheat/corn prices move higher.
• Physical market: Producers may consider locking in current prices for Q3 delivery, as basis risk is limited.
• Traders: Hold near-term positions, but be prepared for rapid position changes around weather, Black Sea logistics, or Chinese tender news.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Markets)

Market	Direction	Expected Range
SFE (Australia, Jul/Nov 25)	Steady	310 – 315 AUD/t
UA Odesa (FOB)	Stable	0.21 – 0.22 EUR/kg
UA Kyiv (FCA)	Stable	0.23 – 0.24 EUR/kg