Barley Market Steadies Amid Global Supply Shifts and Weather Watch

The barley market in mid-2025 reflects a stabilising trend after several months of volatility visible across both futures contracts and spot shipments. With major harvests in the Northern Hemisphere nearly complete, global buyers and producers are scrutinising weather outcomes, fresh yield reports, and trade flows, particularly from Black Sea and Australian origins. Prices on the Sydney Futures Exchange (SFE) for barley feed contracts have shown minimal week-on-week change, indicating consolidation as participants await clearer indications of supply prospects.

Concurrently, feed-grade barley prices in Ukraine—an essential export source—show divergent regional dynamics, with Odesa FCA values ticking up slightly to €0.24/kg, and Kyiv holding steady at €0.22/kg, while FOB offers have eased. Short-term demand from livestock feeders remains firm, especially as other feed grains like corn trade near multiyear highs. On the global level, uncertainties remain over production potential in Canada and Australia due to shifting rainfall patterns, and speculative positioning appears neutral. This update unpacks the latest price movements, market fundamentals, and strategic implications in detail, offering actionable insights for producers, traders, and end-users navigating this pivotal season.

📈 Barley Prices: Futures & Spot Market Overview

Exchange	Contract	Last Close	Previous Close	Change	Change %	Sentiment
SFE	Sep 25	300.00 AUD/t	300.00 AUD/t	0.00	0.00%	Stable
SFE	Nov 25	300.00 AUD/t	300.00 AUD/t	0.00	0.00%	Stable
SFE	Jan 26	305.00 AUD/t	306.00 AUD/t	-1.00	-0.33%	Slightly Bearish
SFE	Mar 26	308.50 AUD/t	309.50 AUD/t	-1.00	-0.32%	Slightly Bearish

 

Origin	Grade	Location	Delivery	Last Price	Prev. Price	Update Date	Direction
Ukraine	Feed grade	Odesa (FCA)	FCA	€0.24/kg	€0.23/kg	2025-07-25	▲
Ukraine	Feed grade	Kyiv (FCA)	FCA	€0.22/kg	€0.22/kg	2025-07-25	=
Ukraine	Cattle feed	Odesa (FOB)	FOB	€0.19/kg	€0.20/kg	2025-07-24	▼

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Ukraine’s supply chain: Harvest is progressing well with higher-than-average yields, especially in southern regions, bolstering exportable surplus.
• Australia: Cropping area is stable, but rainfall variability could trim production targets if drought expands in major regions.
• EU Outlook: Western Europe reports good conditions, but Eastern EU fields suffered from recent dry spells, potentially limiting top-grade supplies.
• Feed demand: Sustained livestock numbers in Asia and the Middle East continue to support firm feed barley import demand.
• Trade flows: Ukraine remains the key source for Middle Eastern buyers. Australian barley continues to compete in Asia, especially after China removes tariffs.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• USDA reports: July WASDE trimmed global ending stock projections slightly, citing dryness in Canada and parts of Australia.
• Speculation: Managed money positions have returned to neutral after a cautious spring build-up.
• Global inventories: Inventories remain comfortable, but any further weather-related production downgrades could tip the balance.
• Export competition: Black Sea and EU origins exert downward pressure; outlook hinges on weather for the next six weeks.

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Effects

• Australia: Weather remains erratic; southern and western growing zones need rain in the next 2-3 weeks to secure average-to-above-average yields.
• Ukraine: Warm, mostly dry weather is ideal for harvest progress, but could stress late-planted barley in central/northern districts.
• Canada: Prairies report mixed conditions; recent rain improved prospects locally, but some southern areas remain dry.
• EU: France and Germany maintain a good outlook, but Hungary & Romania face dry-down concerns; yield cuts possible.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Table

Country	2024/25p Production (Mt)	Year-ago	Stocks Estimate (Mt)	Trend
Australia	12.1	12.5	2.2	Stable/Down
Ukraine	7.6	6.9	1.1	Up
EU	51.2	51.6	2.8	Flat
Canada	9.3	10.4	1.3	Down

🔎 Market Drivers vs. Previous Report

• Price stability: In contrast to last month, price volatility has subsided as supply risk premiums ease post-harvest.
• Weather: This month’s critical driver, with production in Australia and Canada especially weather-sensitive.
• Export flows: Ukrainian FOB/Black Sea shipments remain resilient; demand is steady, but price competition is fiercer.

💡 Trading Outlook & Strategy Recommendations

• Feed barley users should consider extending cover at current levels amid tight corn and feed wheat markets.
• Exporters: Hedge pricing for late-2025 deliveries as Australia and Canadian weather remains a wild card.
• Monitor speculative flows—funds may re-engage if weather disrupts North America/Australia next month.
• End-users: Watch Black Sea/CIS pricing for arbitrage opportunities as harvest pace intensifies.

📆 3-Day Regional Barley Price Forecast

Market	Current Price	Forecast	Trend
SFE Sep 25	300.00 AUD/t	299.50–300.50 AUD/t	Stable
Ukraine FCA Odesa	€0.24/kg	€0.23–0.24/kg	Stable/Weak
Ukraine FCA Kyiv	€0.22/kg	€0.22–0.22/kg	Stable
Ukraine FOB Odesa	€0.19/kg	€0.19–0.20/kg	Slightly Firm