Barley Market Update: Southern Prices Soften Amid Shifting Export Flows & Weather Uncertainty

Barley markets across Australia are navigating a period of transition characterized by shifting export logistics, regional weather disparities, and evolving domestic demand. Over the past week, barley prices in southern Australia have slipped by approximately $5 per tonne, breaking a multi-month trend of firm values driven by intense feed demand during widespread drought. Export flows have increasingly favored Western Australian and east coast ports, resulting in additional local supplies in the southern regions and a notable easing in buying urgency. Nonetheless, some areas in South Australia, Victoria, and southern New South Wales remain reliant on hand-feeding livestock, though many farmers are likely to resume active grain procurement by August to bridge the gap until spring pastures reestablish.

Meanwhile, the northern barley market maintains relative firmness. Bulk cargoes are being accumulated from Brisbane and Newcastle, supporting prices even as overall consumer offtake remains limited. This dynamic is further complicated by a $30 per tonne price premium in the north, which is drawing away export-bound cargoes from the south and west. As a result, southern domestic markets benefit from additional availability and slightly softer prices. Traders and producers alike are closely monitoring the latest rainfall events—which have brought temporary but insufficient relief to some districts—and the outlook for spring conditions, as a positive seasonal turn is widely regarded as crucial for restoring both pasture and grain yields. Against this backdrop, strategic attention has turned to stock levels, logistics, and weather, with participants mindful that the next few weeks could decisively shape market direction through the remainder of the year.

📈 Barley Prices

Location	Grade	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/t)	Previous Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Last Update
Odesa, UA	Feed grade (14% max moisture)	FCA	0.23	0.22	+0.01	2025-07-11
Kyiv, UA	Feed grade (14% max moisture)	FCA	0.22	0.21	+0.01	2025-07-11
Odesa, UA	Cattle feed	FOB	0.20	0.20	0	2025-07-09

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Southern Australia: Softer prices with increased supply in the south as export flows favor the north and west. Buyer urgency has declined for the first time in months.
• Northern Australia: Values remain firm, underpinned by continued bulk shipments from Brisbane/Newcastle despite tepid consumer demand. Price premium for northern cargoes is evident.
• Feed demand: Hand-feeding in drought-hit areas to resume in August to supplement livestock until improved pastures arrive in spring.
• Bulk exports: Cargo reallocations from southern to northern ports have freed up grain for domestic use, moderating local demand.
• Global context: Australia’s barley stocks in New South Wales are deemed sufficient to cover needs until the new crop; Chinese and broader Asian demand remains a watchpoint.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Export flows and price premiums are driving logistical adjustments (northern premium at $30/t), easing supply tightness in the south.
• Barley pricing in Ukraine is steady and slightly firmer in main ports, reflecting a subtle uptick in the Black Sea region. Mild appreciation in FCA (Odesa, Kyiv) this week.
• Consumer feed demand in China remains price sensitive; Australian and Black Sea offers face periodic resistance on cost.
• Nearby wheat prices anchor grain market sentiments, with stable Australian wheat at a $10–$15/t premium over export parity.
• Weekly market sentiment in southern Australia is slightly bearish, while the north remains neutral to bullish owing to logistics and rain-driven supply risks.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Recent rainfall (10–30mm) in parts of South Australia offers short-term crop support but is insufficient to ease broader drought conditions.
• Beneficial precipitation was recorded on the Eyre and Yorke Peninsulas and the South East, aiding crop survival for another month.
• Outlook: Severe dryness persists in the upper Mid North, Riverland, Mallee, and portions of the Eyre Peninsula. Seasonal recovery hinges on further rain before September.
• Forecast (next 7 days): Mixed weather signals from meteorological models, with some chance of follow-up rainfall in key districts—but most regions will remain dry, keeping stress on yield prospects.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country/Region	Barley Production (Mt, 2024/25)	Beginning Stocks (Mt)	Major Usage
Australia	12.8	2.2	Export, Feed
Ukraine	6.7	1.1	Export, Feed
EU	51.3	9.0	Feed, Malt
China	2.5	6.0	Feed, Malt
Canada	10.2	1.6	Feed, Export

🎯 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term southern Australia bias is slightly bearish due to softening prices and increased supply.
• Northern market participants should monitor logistics disruptions; delayed shipments or renewed feed demand could boost premiums further.
• Producers in dry areas should focus on risk management strategies; weather volatility remains the key threat.
• Exporters may find improved arbitrage opportunities as price differentials between regions persist—watch shifting port loadings for tactical sales windows.
• Monitor Chinese buying activity; price sensitivity is limiting upside potential on both Australian and Black Sea origins.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Current Price (EUR/t)	Expected Range (EUR/t)	Trend
Odesa FCA	0.23	0.22–0.24	Steady to slightly firm
Kyiv FCA	0.22	0.22–0.23	Steady
Odesa FOB	0.20	0.19–0.21	Stable
Southern Australia	Spot -5 AUD/t	Flat to -2 AUD/t	Soft, with further easing possible if rain holds off
Northern Australia	Spot +30 AUD/t premium	Premiums steady to firmer	Firm