Harvest Data and Yield Comparisons
The initial data from barley harvesting in the European Union (EU) and the Russian Federation indicate a decline in average yields compared to last year. In Ukraine, while yields are higher than the previous year, certain regions suffering from a lack of precipitation have reported lower quality and yields. In France, winter barley has been harvested in 50% of the area. However, the yield is significantly lower than the projected Ministry of Agriculture and Food Security (MSG) figure of 6.73 tons per hectare. Agritel analysts forecast yields in the range of 5.46 to 5.57 tons per hectare, with a total harvest of 7 million tons. This represents a 27% decrease from last year.
- As of July 3, 2.79 million tons of barley were harvested from 672.1 thousand hectares in the Russian Federation, covering 8.6% of the area.
- The average yield was 4.15 tons per hectare, a 5.5% decrease from last year.
- Weekly yield averages decreased by 23% as harvesting moved from south to north.
This reduction in both sowing area and yield will likely decrease Russian barley exports, increasing demand for Ukrainian barley.
Ukrainian Barley Harvest and Export Trends
In Ukraine, by July 5, 1.56 million tons of barley were harvested from 402.7 thousand hectares, accounting for 32% of the area. The average yield was 3.87 tons per hectare, compared to last year’s yield of 3.43 tons per hectare from 235 thousand hectares. Despite the higher yield, Ukraine exported only 7,000 tons of barley by July 8 for the 2024/25 marketing year, compared to 65,000 tons during the same period last year. The decrease in yield and quality of barley in France is likely to boost demand for brewing barley from Ukraine. Despite this, brewing barley prices in Ukraine remain low for factory delivery, which is lower than feed barley prices.
The barley market is experiencing significant fluctuations due to varying yields and export demands across different regions. In Ukraine, the higher yields in certain areas and the lower export figures compared to last year have led to price adjustments. The expected increase in demand for Ukrainian barley, mainly brewing barley, presents both opportunities and challenges.