Beans Market Dynamics: Stability Amid Low Supply and Cautious Trade

The global beans market is currently experiencing a nuanced period of stability with selective softness in specific regions. Despite small price retreats in some areas, largely attributed to muted demand and weaker local spot conditions, the overarching trend is one of constrained volatility. Chinese production zones, particularly for the premium “Qingren black beans,” report limited remaining supply with stocks concentrated among a handful of traders. This backdrop creates a dual sentiment: while sellers exhibit reluctance to offload beans at lower prices amid low availability, isolated segments are offering modest discounts to expedite inventory clearance.

Downstream, the market is adjusting to the clearance of old-crop stocks and an uptick in shipment motivation. Nonetheless, the main consensus is that prices will not see major moves unless supply or demand shocks materialise in the near term. Competitive offerings remain sparse, underlining a market environment favouring cautious optimism for suppliers and guarded, opportunistic buying for processors and exporters. Buyers are advised to monitor regional weather risks and the impact of continued low inventories in major producing nations, as these will play pivotal roles in market direction moving forward.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Purity	Organic	FOB Price (USD/kg)	Prior (USD/kg)	Change (w/w)	Trend
Mung beans	Organic	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	1.50	1.47	+0.03	▲
Mung beans	3.8 mm up	CN	Beijing	99.5%	No	1.41	1.39	+0.02	▲
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	1.52	1.53	-0.01	▼
Kidney beans	Large, white, organic	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	3.37	3.39	-0.02	▼
Kidney beans	Large white	CN	Beijing	99.5%	No	3.28	3.30	-0.02	▼
Kidney beans	Dark red, organic	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	2.49	2.47	+0.02	▲
Kidney beans	Dark red	CN	Beijing	99.5%	No	2.39	2.38	+0.01	▲
Kidney beans	Black	CN	Beijing	99.5%	No	1.50	1.49	+0.01	▲
Adzuki beans	Red, organic, 5.0 mm up	CN	Beijing	99.5%	Yes	1.58	1.57	+0.01	▲
Adzuki beans	Red, 5.0 mm up	CN	Beijing	99.95%	No	1.49	1.47	+0.02	▲
Kidney beans	Dark red	BR	Brasília	–	No	1.44	1.44	0.00	=
Kidney beans	Brown eye	BR	Brasília	–	No	1.38	1.38	0.00	=
Kidney beans	White	GB	London	99%	No	1.37	1.37	0.00	=
German beans	Split	GB	London	–	No	0.97	0.97	0.00	=
Fava Beans	Sortex, small	GB	London	–	No	1.18	1.18	0.00	=
Beans dried	Split, 12 mm	GB	London	98%	No	1.62	1.62	0.00	=
Beans broad	Whole 12 mm	GB	London	99.5%	No	1.32	1.32	0.00	=
Alubia beans	White	BR	Brasília	–	No	1.38	1.38	0.00	=

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Chinese production areas show thinning supply, with inventories held mainly by a small group of trade houses. Producers are reticent to sell below market, keeping a floor under prices despite localised discounting.
• Demand remains lacklustre across most consuming regions, evidenced by hesitant buying and slow contract movement.
• Stock clearance and higher shipping incentives in some regions have led to sporadic price reductions, though the broader market is stable to firm.
• Brazil and the UK export/offering prices remain unchanged week-on-week, indicating no new supply pressure from outside China.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA Reports: Recent global bean stocks remain at multiyear lows, particularly for speciality beans (organic, adzuki, and small black) due to previous drought impacts across Asia and South America.
• Crop Acreage: Planting intentions in China and Brazil suggest steady-to-slightly lower acreage, reflecting farmers’ cautious approach amid prior market volatility.
• Speculative Positioning: Market participants are taking a guarded stance; commercial hedging is more prominent than fund-driven speculation.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Chinese Northeast (Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia): Recent spells of below-normal rainfall are reported, posing some risk to maturing crops. Forecasts for the coming week indicate moderate showers, likely aiding pod filling but delaying field work.
• Brazilian bean belts: Stable weather, with limited threat to near-term harvest.
• UK: Temperate and favourable for the tail end of spring sowing and development.

Potential Effects: Prolonged rain shortfalls in China could risk localised yield loss for late-maturing varieties. However, current outlooks remain comfortably within normal crop production bounds.

🌎 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024/25 Prod. (est, kt)	2024/25 Carryout (kt)	YoY Trend
China	1,200	110	↓ (-3%)
Brazil	650	85	=
India	1,450	135	↓ (-2%)
UK	230	22	↑ (+1%)
EU27	540	63	↓ (-1%)

📆 Outlook & Recommendations

• Buyers: Secure critical volumes at current levels for speciality beans; further downside appears limited due to stock concentration and production risks in China.
• Processors/Exporters: Consider holding moderate inventory given low pipeline stocks and unpredictable local selling action.
• Cautious optimism for sellers; avoid aggressive discounting as structural market tightness persists for high-quality lots.
• Monitor China’s weather for signs of late-season risk that could tighten supply further.

⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Product	3-Day Forecast (USD/kg)	Sentiment
Beijing (CN)	Mung Beans	1.49 – 1.52	Stable/firm
Beijing (CN)	Kidney Beans (black, small)	1.50 – 1.54	Stable
Brasília (BR)	Kidney Beans (dark red)	1.43 – 1.45	Flat
London (GB)	White Beans	1.37 – 1.38	Flat