Beans Market Update: Demand Weakness Meets Optimistic Supply Prospects

The global beans market is navigating a complex interplay of soft short-term demand and improving supply expectations through favorable growing conditions. Recently, bearish sentiment has been evident—weak demand has pressured guar gum prices and spilled over to other beans categories, with several varieties posting marginal declines. For instance, organic mung beans from China slipped to USD 1.81/kg, and conventional types have also eased. Kidney and adzuki beans, critical to both export and domestic sectors, have followed this trend, reflecting both subdued end-user demand and cautious speculative positioning.

However, the mid-term outlook remains relatively upbeat. Improved monsoon activity in top-producing regions such as Rajasthan and Haryana is expected to boost yields and stabilize prices. Furthermore, the upcoming months are anticipated to see a resurgence in demand, particularly from key sectors like food processing and oil drilling, with export inquiries already on the uptick. Production projections for 2024–25 hint at higher output, given expanded acreage and better field conditions. Consequently, price declines are likely to be limited with a more constructive outlook for Q4 as inventories begin to clear and buyers return in earnest.

📈 Prices

Product	Type	Origin	Purity	Organic	Price (EUR/kg)	Change	Last Update	Offer
Mung beans	99.5% Organic	China	99.5%	Yes	1.55	-0.03	2025-09-03	View
Mung beans	3.8 mm up	China	99.5%	No	1.46	-0.02	2025-09-03	View
Kidney beans	Small, black, organic	China	99.5%	Yes	1.37	+0.03	2025-09-03	View
Adzuki beans	Red, organic, 5.0 mm up	China	99.5%	Yes	1.56	-0.03	2025-09-03	View

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Recent weak demand, notably from oil drilling and food processing, put pressure on prices; guar gum fell USD 6/quintal and beans eased across key origins.
• Spot guar gum prices in Jodhpur dropped USD 1.20–1.50/quintal, with similar patterns for bean prices in Rajasthan and Haryana (USD 11–12/quintal).
• Analysts expect little further downside, as monsoon impact is limited and crop output remains resilient.
• Export interest is strengthening, particularly for guar and mung beans, suggesting impending improvement in global demand.
• Markets expect Q4 resurgence, especially as export inquiries and strategic buying from food and oil sectors increase post-September.
• Global demand from the petroleum industry remains a major driver for guar and bean prices.

📊 Fundamentals

• 2024–25 production projected to rise due to improved acreage and favorable weather in Western Rajasthan and major producing regions in China.
• Global stocks expected to remain adequate, limiting extreme price upward risks in the near term.
• Speculative positioning is cautious; futures on NCDEX (September contracts) dipped marginally to USD 50.12/quintal.
• Weather remains the principal risk factor: successful monsoon progression will be key to yield gains.

☁️ Weather Outlook

• Western Rajasthan and Haryana: Monsoon progress on track, boosting soil moisture and creating optimal bean sowing conditions.
• China (Hebei, Heilongjiang): Recent rains support pod filling and minimize drought stress.
• No major heatwave or drought alerts in key bean-growing regions for the next two weeks.
• Weather models indicate near-normal rainfall for September—likely stabilizing to improving yields.

🌏 Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Estimated Production (kt)	2024/25 Stock (kt)	Trend vs. 2023
India (guar+beans)	2,100	830	Stable/Up
China (beans)	1,900	780	Stable
Brazil (beans)	1,400	690	Up
EU	880	310	Stable

💡 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term: Expect price consolidation with limited downside; support seen as inventories run down and new demand emerges post-September.
• Buying interest recommended on dips, especially for Q4/2024 delivery.
• Monitor weather development in Rajasthan and key Chinese provinces for signs of increased yield risk or opportunity.
• Exporters should leverage the firming inquiry trend and potential end-of-year demand spike.
• End-users: Consider forward contracts to lock in current benign price levels before speculative position rebuilding.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Market Sentiment
FOB Beijing	Mung beans (organic)	1.55	1.54–1.56	Slightly Bearish/Stable
FOB Beijing	Kidney beans (small, black, organic)	1.37	1.36–1.38	Stable
FOB Beijing	Adzuki beans (organic)	1.56	1.55–1.57	Stable
FOB Brasília	Kidney beans (dark red)	1.46	1.45–1.46	Stable