Big cardamom takes center stage with an anticipated price surge, potentially reaching $17,98 or €16,50 per kg. This aromatic spice, embraced by diverse culinary cultures, faces a market terrain marked by scarcity and high demand.
A Squeeze in Supply Ignites an Uptrend
Big cardamom, a culinary gem in domestic and international kitchens, grapples with a significant 40 percent reduction in production in Nepal and Bhutan. This scarcity, coupled with constrained domestic output, propels prices upwards. The currency exchange dance further amplifies the cost, making it a pricy commodity, reaching the $3,60 or €3,30 mark.
West Bengal, including critical regions like Gangtok, Sikkim, and Siliguri, anticipates a whopping 50 percent decline in big cardamom production. Once a prominent supplier of affordable cardamom, Bhutan sees diminished exports, diverting its produce to other global markets. Assam-based traders are strategically curbing imports from the Bhutan border, intensifying the scarcity.
Nepal’s Crop Woes and International Exodus
Nepal, facing a substantial decline in significant cardamom yield and depleted stockpiles, witnesses a relentless departure of goods at elevated international prices. The dearth of stock in Indian markets, coupled with the arrival of the new crop, has fueled a price surge. In the bustling markets of Nepal, the price surge of big cardamom sets the stage for a potential spike in Delhi.
Traders foresee an upward trajectory, projecting a potential surge in local currency in the coming month. The relentless demand and supply constraints signal a possible escalation in Nepal. If current trends persist, the price in Delhi could skyrocket to $15,66 or €14,37 per kg in the upcoming week and eye a formidable $18,07 or €16,58 per kg by December 31.
Historical Context, Price Fluctuations, and Market Resilience
Last October-November witnessed a slump in significant cardamom demand, causing prices to dip to $11,63-12,11 or €10,67-11,11 per kg. This led to an 86 percent reduction in external trade, impacting stockpiles in UP, MP, Haryana, and Delhi. However, the present scenario, driven by increased demand, impending weddings, and production challenges, hints at substantial gains for big cardamom.
The current surge in big cardamom prices has challenges and opportunities in the hustling spice market. While the spike might pose challenges for consumers and businesses, it also presents a lucrative opportunity for traders and exporters.