Brazil’s Soybean Crop Grows with Updated Forecasts
Brazil’s soybean planting for the 2024/25 season is progressing quickly, with 91% of the planned area planted by November 28, a significant rise from 85% at the same time last year, according to AgRural.
Celeres agency revised its production forecast upward by 1 million tons, estimating a total of 170.8 million tons. Export expectations also climbed to 107 million tons. Similarly, Agroconsult adjusted its estimates, projecting a 1.5% increase in planted area to 47.5 million hectares and an 11% production increase to 172.6 million tons. Soybean exports are anticipated to grow by 5.3%, reaching 103.4 million tons.
Argentina Benefits from Improved Weather for Soybean Crops
In Argentina, farmers have planted 44.4% of the planned 18.6 million hectares, according to the BAGE Grain Exchange. Recent rainfall has improved soil moisture, leaving 98% of soybean crops in strong condition and bolstering hopes for a productive harvest.
U.S. Soybean Processing and Exports See Record Gains
Soybean processing in the U.S. reached 5.87 million tons in October, a 15.7% increase from September. This figure surpassed earlier estimates of 5.7 million tons, indicating robust domestic demand.
Soybean oil stocks fell slightly to 674,000 tons, reflecting high usage levels. Meanwhile, export volumes surged. Weekly U.S. soybean exports from November 22–28 totaled 2.088 million tons, a 78% rise. China purchased 952,000 tons, and Italy followed with 548,500 tons.
Steady Trends in Global Soybean Markets
While Brazil and Argentina continue to raise their production forecasts, soybean prices have experienced little movement. January soybean futures on the Chicago Stock Exchange recently traded at $0,362 per kg, down 1.2% over the month. This stability persists despite higher processing and export activity in the U.S.
- U.S. Soybean Exports: Total exports for the season reached 21.793 million tons, a 16.2% year-on-year increase.
- Soybean Oil Exports: U.S. weekly soybean oil exports hit 124,800 tons, the highest level since March 2019.
Conclusion: Soybean Market Expansion
Brazil and Argentina’s production expansions are expected to keep global supplies abundant. Meanwhile, U.S. refinery growth and strong export figures are helping maintain stable prices. Market participants are closely monitoring weather conditions in South America and international demand trends to assess future developments.
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