Brazil’s Booming Harvest Sets the Pace: Soya Market Dynamics for 2025–26

The global soybean market is at a pivotal juncture as Brazil gears up for what could be another record-breaking harvest in the 2025–26 season. According to Agrisource, Brazilian soybean production is forecast to reach an impressive 176.5 million tons—a 3% increase from last year’s 171.2 million tons. This surge is driven by expanding acreage and robust yields, which analysts attribute to both favorable weather and regional investment in agriculture. With Brazil’s export volumes expected to rise to 100 million tons despite steady domestic use, market observers anticipate mounting competitive pressures on American and Argentine suppliers.

Moreover, as China’s demand patterns shift and U.S. production remains volatile, international soybean prices are experiencing additional turbulence. For market participants, the outlook for the next quarter hinges not only on these global supply threads but also the evolving regional weather scenarios, speculative movements, and trade flows. Will Brazil’s output keep prices in check, or will external shocks upend expectations as the new marketing year unfolds? For exporters, processors, and end-users, understanding these variables is more crucial than ever.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Location	Price (EUR/kg)	Prev. Price	Weekly Change	Update Date	Market Sentiment
Soybeans No. 2	US	No. 2	Washington D.C.	0.35	0.35	0%	2025-08-21	Neutral
Soybeans sortex clean	IN	Sortex clean	New Delhi	0.72	0.72	0%	2025-08-21	Stable
Soybeans	UA	–	Odesa	0.34	0.35	-2.9%	2025-08-21	Soft
Soybeans yellow, organic	CN	Yellow, 99.8% organic	Beijing	0.79	0.78	+1.3%	2025-08-20	Firm
Soybeans yellow	CN	Yellow, 99.5%	Beijing	0.71	0.70	+1.4%	2025-08-20	Upward
Soya powder lecithin	IN	Lecithin, organic	New Delhi	2.77	2.77	0%	2025-08-07	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Brazilian Expansion: Planted area grows to 42.8 million hectares (+2%), with total output rising to 176.5 million tons (+3%).
• Export Strength: Brazil’s exports set to climb to a record 100 million tons for 2025–26, cementing its dominant position in world soy trade.
• Stable Domestic Use: Brazilian internal consumption steady at 54 million tons, focused on livestock feed and biofuel sectors.
• U.S. & China Volatility: Shifts in U.S. crop outlook and evolving Chinese demand continue to drive global price uncertainty.
• Global Inventories: Ample supplies are expected to weigh on prices, possibly offset by weather risks in key producer regions.

📊 Fundamentals & External Influences

• Latest USDA reports show moderately higher U.S. production estimates but persistent concerns over planting delays in the Midwest.
• Speculative net positioning on CBOT remains cautious, reflecting mixed price signals and uncertainty over demand from major importers.

Country	2025–26 Prod. (mln tons)	Stocks (mln tons)	Exports (mln tons)
Brazil	176.5	Est. 37	100
US	Estimated 120	Est. 20	50
Argentina	Estimated 50	Est. 4	7
China	18	Est. 29	Low

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Brazil: Favorable rainfall and optimal temperatures forecast for main producing states (Mato Grosso, Paraná), enhancing yield prospects.
• US Midwest: Recent storms benefit soil moisture, but some areas risk excessive wetness and planting delays.
• Argentina: Average conditions; sufficient rainfall but close monitoring needed for potential late-season dryness.
• China: Eastern provinces face heatwave risks, with localized drought concerns impacting minor producing areas.

🧭 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Expect overall price pressure in Q3/Q4 due to record South American supply.
• Monitor U.S. weather and planting progress for any bullish surprises as harvest nears.
• Exporters: Hedge Q4 positions, as further supply growth in Brazil could trigger additional price erosion.
• Importers: Consider opportunistic purchases on price dips, especially for non-GMO and specialty origins.
• Speculators: Watch for volatility spikes on Chinese demand news or late-season weather shifts in Brazil/Argentina.

📆 3-Day Price Forecast (by major exchange)

Exchange	Product	Last Close (EUR/t)	Forecast (Next 3 Days)
CBOT	Soybeans Nov 2025	~415	410–418 (soft/moderately bearish)
Euronext	Soybeans Nov 2025	~426	423–430 (stable/softening)

Potential downside prevails in the short term amid robust Brazilian outlook and neutral inventories, though weather risks could trigger rapid reversals.