Buckwheat Market Analysis: Stable Prices Amid Ample Supply and Import Pressure

The buckwheat market is currently experiencing a phase of stability, particularly in China, where domestic supply and demand remain relatively loose. Despite dwindling supplies in key producing regions and farmers showing reluctance to sell at low prices, the influx of imported buckwheat and its strong substitutability have kept domestic prices suppressed. The market has entered a traditionally slow sales season as of June, and prices are expected to remain steady in the short term.

Attention is focused on the pace of domestic market absorption and fluctuations in import volumes, both of which could influence price movements in the coming months. Internationally, price differentials between Chinese and European origins persist, with organic buckwheat from the EU trading at a premium, reflecting different production costs, demand structures, and certification standards. Weather conditions in major buckwheat-growing regions remain favourable, supporting stable yield prospects. Overall, market participants should monitor inventory levels, import trends, and weather developments to anticipate potential price shifts in the latter half of the year.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (USD/kg)	Previous Price (USD/kg)	Update Date	Sentiment
China	hulled, organic	99.95%	Yes	Beijing	FOB	0.72	0.69	2025-05-27	Stable to slightly firm
China	hulled, yellow	99.95%	No	Beijing	FOB	0.65	0.63	2025-05-27	Stable
Poland	hulled	–	Yes	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	1.33	1.33	2025-05-23	Stable
Poland	hulled	–	No	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	0.87	0.87	2025-05-23	Stable
Poland	husk	99.5%	No	Lipsko	EXW	0.30	0.35	2025-05-05	Weaker

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Domestic supply is shrinking as the season progresses, but large imports and high substitutability with foreign buckwheat keep prices low.
• Europe: Organic buckwheat from Poland remains stable with little price movement, reflecting balanced supply and demand.
• Global: Inventories remain comfortable, but any disruption in import flows or a sudden uptick in demand could tighten the market.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA & Official Reports: No significant changes in global buckwheat acreage or yield projections.
• Import Trends: China continues to import substantial volumes, putting pressure on domestic prices.
• Speculative Activity: Low; buckwheat remains a relatively niche commodity with limited speculative trading.
• Comparison to Last Report: The market remains in a stable-to-soft condition; previous reports also highlighted import pressure and weak domestic selling interest.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• China (Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia): Current conditions are favourable with adequate rainfall and moderate temperatures, supporting stable crop development.
• Europe (Poland, Ukraine): Mild temperatures and sufficient soil moisture bode well for the 2025 crop, with no major weather threats in the short term.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024 Production (est. 1,000 MT)	2024 Stocks (est. 1,000 MT)	2023/24 Change (%)
China	410	90	+2%
Russia	700	110	+1%
Poland	60	12	Stable
Ukraine	45	8	Stable

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Monitor import volumes into China as a key price driver.
• Expect continued price stability through the off-season (June–July), barring any weather disruptions.
• Buyers may consider forward purchases if signs of tightening supply emerge post-summer.
• Sellers should watch for any improvement in domestic demand or reduction in import flows before holding out for higher prices.
• Track weather developments in China and Eastern Europe for early signs of crop stress.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region/Exchange	Current Price (USD/kg)	3-Day Forecast	Trend
Beijing (CN, Organic)	0.72	0.71–0.73	Stable
Beijing (CN, Non-Organic)	0.65	0.64–0.66	Stable
Dordrecht (NL, Organic)	1.33	1.32–1.34	Stable