The buckwheat market is currently undergoing notable shifts, shaped by both international and domestic developments, particularly in China, the world’s largest player. Over recent weeks, Chinese market sentiment has become increasingly cautious. A surge in buckwheat imports, led by attractive pricing from overseas producers, is exerting downward pressure on local spot prices. Simultaneously, many Chinese farmers are holding back harvest sales, mounting a psychological price floor due to prevailing low-price levels. This attitude, while temporarily stabilising prices, is countered by generally lukewarm market demand brought on by the summer heat, a seasonally slow period for buckwheat consumption.
Exporters, wary of oversupply, remain disciplined and are now matching their procurement more tightly to real-time order quantities to curb unwanted inventory build-up. External market dynamics—like shifting international competitiveness and short-term supply chain adjustments—are also at play. Looking forward, all signals suggest that unless demand improves or weather-induced yield risks materialise, the buckwheat market is gearing up for further modest declines through the peak of summer. Market participants should remain alert to both upside risks from potential weather disruptions and continued downside from import flows and soft domestic demand.
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Buckwheat
hulled, organic
99.95%
FOB 0.73 €/kg
(from CN)
Buckwheat
hulled, yellow
99.95%
FOB 0.65 €/kg
(from CN)
Buckwheat
hulled
FCA 0.86 €/kg
(from NL)
📈 Prices & Market Sentiment
| Origin | Location | Type | Organic | Delivery Terms | Price (USD/kg) | Change (WoW) | Latest Update | Sentiment | Offer Link |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CN | Beijing | Hulled, organic | Yes | FOB | 0.73 | -0.01 | 2025-06-10 | Bearish | View |
| CN | Beijing | Hulled, yellow | No | FOB | 0.65 | -0.01 | 2025-06-10 | Bearish | View |
| PL | Dordrecht, NL | Hulled | No | FCA | 0.87 | 0.00 | 2025-06-07 | Neutral | View |
| PL | Dordrecht, NL | Hulled | Yes | FCA | 1.33 | 0.00 | 2025-06-05 | Neutral | View |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Imports increase: China is ramping up buckwheat imports, driven by competitive international prices, especially from Eastern Europe.
- Farmer reluctance: Domestic farmers delay sales, wary of current price lows, providing temporary price support.
- Weak seasonal demand: Summer heat reduces buckwheat consumption; major demand recovery not expected until Q4.
- Export procurement adapts: Exporters buy strictly to order, aiming to avoid surplus inventory.
📊 Fundamentals & Global Overview
- China: The world’s largest producer and consumer; domestic stocks remain adequate, but cumulative inventory pressure may grow if farmer sales resume post-summer.
- Europe: Stable prices on Polish origin buckwheat shipped via Rotterdam. No significant movement in the past week.
- Global trade: Export flows show China increasingly purchasing, but strong European and Russian harvest outlooks may keep a lid on further upside.
☀️ Weather Outlook
- China: Extended hot and dry conditions in North and Northeast production belts (Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia) threaten to reduce yield potential if drought persists through July.
- Eastern Europe: Mostly favourable, with adequate rainfall aiding crop development in Poland, Ukraine, and Russia. Minor localised dryness observed, but not yet market-moving.
📆 Production & Inventory Scorecard
| Country | 2024/25 Production (est. ‘000t) | Stocks (‘000t) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| China | 670 | 180 | Flat |
| Russia | 820 | 200 | Slightly Up |
| Poland | 91 | 22 | Up |
| Ukraine | 85 | 17 | Stable |
📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📉 Short-term bias: Bearish—anticipate additional price easing as summer demand wanes and import competition stays strong.
- ⏳ Farmer sales: Monitor post-summer selling by Chinese farmers, which may trigger additional price weakness.
- 🌧️ Weather risk: Watch for escalation in drought risk in China—weather-related damage could offer temporary price support.
- 📦 Buyers: Consider timing purchases for late summer or early Q4 when demand seasonality turns higher.
- 🔄 Exporters: Continue aligning procurement with firm orders to avoid stock accumulation.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location | Type | Current Price (USD/kg) | Expected Range (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beijing, CN | Hulled, organic | 0.73 | 0.72 – 0.74 | Soft/Lower |
| Beijing, CN | Hulled, yellow | 0.65 | 0.64 – 0.66 | Soft/Lower |
| Dordrecht, NL | Hulled | 0.87 | 0.86 – 0.88 | Stable |
