This week, the global millet market saw a remarkable turnaround, with prices rallying sharply across major origin and trading hubs. The resurgence follows a period of constrained arrivals, particularly in Gujarat, India, where key mandis like Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Bhuj, and Surendranagar reported dwindling inflows of quality millet. The effect has been a noticeable firming of local prices—Rajkot mandi traded at $277–$285/mt, Bhavnagar shot up to $285/mt (from $248/mt just days ago), and Bhuj and Surendranagar stabilized in the $270–$282/mt range.
Industry analysts attribute this to steady demand, notably from both local and outstation buyers, and a tightening availability of high-quality millet grain. Monsoon patterns are adding uncertainty, with market participants closely watching weather developments for further supply risks. These supply-and-demand dynamics, reflecting both regional and global trends, hint at continued strength in the millet market, especially as exporters and food processors increase their interest. If incoming arrivals remain subdued and external interest persists, prices are poised to stay elevated in the near term.
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📈 Latest Millet Market Prices
| Origin | Product | Type | Delivery | Location | Price (EUR/kg) | WoW Change | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine | Millet seeds | Inshell, red, 98% | FCA | Odesa | 0.24 | 0% | Steady |
| Ukraine | Millet seeds | Inshell, yellow, 98% | FCA | Odesa | 0.23 | 0% | Steady |
| Ukraine | Millet kernels | Hulled, yellow, 99% | FCA | Odesa | 1.20 | 0% | Stable |
| China | Millet kernels | Hulled, yellow, 99.90% organic | FOB | Beijing | 0.75 | -2.6% | Softening |
| China | Millet kernels | Hulled, yellow, 99.95% | FOB | Beijing | 0.68 | -1.4% | Slightly Weak |
| Poland | Millet seeds | Raw, yellow, 98% | FCA | Kiełczygłow | 0.28 | -3.6% | Weak |
| Poland | Millet kernels | Hulled, yellow, 99.95% | FCA | Kiełczygłow | 0.45 | +2.3% | Firming |
| Poland | Millet kernels | Hulled, yellow | EXW | Lipsko | 0.53 | 0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Reduced arrivals in Gujarat: Key Indian producing regions (Rajkot, Bhavnagar, Bhuj) report lower daily arrivals, putting upward pressure on local and export prices.
- Steady buying interest: Strong activity from both domestic and outstation buyers is providing a floor for prices.
- Quality constraints: Limited availability of high-quality millet is intensifying the competition among buyers, especially as monsoon patterns shape crop quality and harvest volumes.
- Weather influence: Unpredictable monsoon performance remains the wild card for short-term supply, especially in India and surrounding export regions.
📊 Fundamentals: Global Production & Stocks
| Country | Production 2024/25 (est. 000 t) | Major Exporters | Stocks (000 t) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 12,500 | Yes | 3,000 |
| Nigeria | 5,600 | Limited | 1,500 |
| China | 2,000 | Yes | 600 |
| Ukraine | 430 | Yes | 150 |
| Russia | 400 | Yes | 90 |
| Rest of World | 3,200 | Some | 900 |
- India remains the world’s leading millet producer and supplier, setting the tone for global prices.
- Nigeria’s domestic market is largely self-sufficient, with small exportable surpluses.
🌦️ Weather Outlook for Key Growing Regions
- India (Gujarat, Rajasthan, UP): Monsoon activity is patchy—recent rains have replenished some growing belts, but erratic distribution could result in below-average yields if critical periods remain dry over the next 10 days.
- Ukraine/Russia: Summer conditions mostly favorable with adequate moisture for maturing crops. Minor dryness concerns, but not yet severe for the harvest outlook.
- China: Eastern millet-belt prospects are stable, benefiting from recent showers.
Any weather-driven supply tightness in India could trigger further price escalation this month.
📌 Market Drivers & Latest Developments
- Market rebound led by scarcity and demand: The $37/mt weekly rally is notable and reverses a prior phase of market softness, with the highest firmness reported in Bhavnagar (+$37/mt).
- Speculative positioning: Some trade houses are taking long positions on quality millet, banking on seasonal tightness to drive further price gains.
- Export premium risk: Rising domestic prices in India and continued demand from African and Middle Eastern importers may lead to further global price increases, especially if Ukraine’s new crop exports are slow to reach the market.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📍 Short-term (next 7 days): Expect continued price firmness as arrivals stay low and monsoon uncertainty persists in India.
- 📈 Bullish factors: Reduced mandis arrivals, strong demand, speculative interest, and weather risks in India.
- 📉 Bears’ hope: A sudden surge in arrivals or improved weather could temporarily ease prices, but this is unlikely in the next week.
- 🛒 Buyers: Secure needs promptly—wait-and-see could mean higher prices if arrivals do not pick up.
- 💼 Exporters: Monitor Indian and Ukrainian shipments for timing opportunities; premiums may widen if Asian supply stays tight.
- 📊 Speculators: Favor long exposure, but remain nimble around new crop news and rainfall updates.
⏩ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Exchange | Spot Price (USD/mt) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gujarat (Rajkot) | 282–285 | ↑ 285–292 | Firm/Bullish |
| Bhavnagar | 285 | ↑ 287–295 | Very Firm |
| UA (Odesa, FCA) | (EUR 0.24/kg) | → 0.24–0.25 | Stable / Slightly Firm |
| CN (Beijing, FOB) | (EUR 0.68–0.75/kg) | → 0.68–0.76 | Stable |
| PL (Kiełczygłow, FCA) | (EUR 0.28–0.45/kg) | →/↑ 0.28–0.46 | Steady / Slight Upside |
