Cameroon’s corn Sector Faces Deficit and Soaring Costs Despite Growing Demand

The global corn market is experiencing marked volatility and supply-side pressure, with Cameroon serving as a focal example of regional structural imbalances. Despite being Cameroon’s most cultivated cereal, domestic maize production is struggling to keep up with surging demand and elevated costs. The latest governmental report highlights that annual production sits at 2.2 million tonnes, far below the 2.8 million tonnes needed—a deficit that is steadily increasing. Imports, especially from Argentina, have had to ramp up significantly (by 103% in 2024) to fill this gap, with official inflows reaching 81,833 tonnes and an import bill of approximately US$31.9 million. Informal exports to neighboring states and alarming post-harvest losses (around 11% of total production) exacerbate the domestic shortfall. Cameroonian farm yields (1.8 tonnes/ha) continue to lag both the global (5.9 tonnes/ha) and regional (South Africa: 6.4 tonnes/ha) averages, underlining a productivity crisis driven by high input costs, rudimentary practices, and limited technological adoption. As demand from feed and milling sectors rises, the call for systemic reform to modernize and expand maize production is urgent. Globally, corn trading mirrors this tension, with prices responding to weather concerns, export trends, and speculative activity across major exchanges.

📈 Corn Prices at Major Exchanges

Origin	Product Type	Location	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
AR	Popcorn, 40/42	Buenos Aires	FOB	0.80	0%	Stable
FR	Corn, yellow	Paris	FOB	0.20	0%	Stable
IN	Corn, starch (organic)	New Delhi	FOB	1.65	-5.7%	Softening
UA	Corn	Odesa	FOB	0.18	0%	Stable
NL (BR origin)	Popcorn	Dordrecht	FCA	0.75	0%	Stable
UA	Corn, yellow feed 14.5% moisture, 98% purity	Odesa	FCA	0.23	0%	Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers

• Cameroon: Production deficit (2.2m vs. 2.8m tonnes demand); post-harvest losses at 11% and informal border exports inflate local scarcity.
• Imports: 2024 imports grew 103% YoY to 81,833 tonnes; Argentina as main supply source, with informal exports nearly 50,000 tonnes.
• Global: Ukraine and France maintain stable export prices; reduced starch corn prices from India suggest softer regional demand.
• Speculation & Inventories: Funds have slowed accumulation on Chicago’s CBOT; latest USDA data points to robust US exports but heightened global stock sensitivity.

📊 Market Fundamentals & Weather Outlook

• Yield Gap: Cameroon’s 1.8 t/ha vs. world (5.9 t/ha) and South Africa (6.4 t/ha); inefficiencies due to smallholder dominance and poor access to certified seeds/credit.
• Production Costs: High – approx. EUR 700/ha (CFA428,000), worsened by costly seeds, fertilisers, and lack of mechanisation.
• Global Benchmarks: US Midwest and Brazil experiencing near-average yields this season, with slight weather stress expected in parts of the US Corn Belt (latest satellite data suggest patchy soil moisture deficits; risk to late-planted fields remains low to moderate).
• Weather Outlook (Key Regions):
  • US Corn Belt: Warmer-than-average temperatures, mild precipitation deficits (risk: moderate); yield optimism remains but market wary of late-summer heat spikes.
  • Black Sea (Ukraine): Stable conditions for late harvest; logistical bottlenecks due to ongoing conflict but no severe weather impact.
  • South America: Brazil and Argentina entering dry season, but crop finish looks adequate for exports.
  • Cameroon: Localised dry spells may trim late maize output, but normal to above-normal rainfall in north-west remains supportive overall.

🌏 Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Production (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Import (+)/Export (-)
USA	382	56	-54
China	285	208	+18
Brazil	124	15	-48
Argentina	55	3	-38
Ukraine	28	2	-22
EU (France key)	62	7	0
Cameroon	2.2	0.12	+0.08

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Cameroonian buyers should prepare for continued import reliance and price volatility as supply shortages persist. Seek supply chain diversification where possible.
• 📌 Exporters (Argentina, Ukraine) remain well-positioned amid African import growth and may benefit from capturing informal border trade as formal demand shifts.
• 📌 Watch US yield development reports and late-season Midwest weather, as adverse events can rapidly reverse price direction globally.
• 📌 End-users: Consider locking in volumes ahead of the northern hemisphere’s late summer volatility; storage investment pays off especially in deficit-prone regions.
• 📌 Traders: Price action stable in Europe and Black Sea region; monitor Indian price softening for arbitrage opportunities.

📉 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Region	Current Price (EUR/kg)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
CBOT (US)	~0.17	0.16 – 0.18	Neutral-Slightly Up
Euronext (Paris, FR)	0.20	0.20 – 0.21	Stable
Odesa (UA)	0.18	0.17 – 0.19	Stable
Yaoundé (CM) (import, est.)	~0.39	0.39 – 0.41	Firm