Overview of the Canadian Barley Supply
For the 2023-24 crop year, Canadian barley supply is projected to decrease by 6% compared to the previous five-year average. This article analyzes the current state of the Canadian barley market, including supply, domestic use, exports, and price trends. Moreover, it provides a forecast for the upcoming year.
Supply, Domestic Use, And Export Projections
According to the Reports and Statistics of Canadian Principal Crops, the total barley supply in Canada for 2023-24 is estimated at 9.7 million tonnes (mt). This represents an 8% decrease year-on-year and 6% below the five-year average. Domestic use is forecasted at 5.9 mt, slightly down from the previous year and 4% below the average. This decline is primarily attributed to reduced feed use. Total barley exports are predicted to be 2.8 mt, a significant drop from last year and the five-year average. This decrease in exports is mainly due to lower expected shipments of barley grain to key destinations such as China, the US, Japan, and Mexico. In the same vein, carry-out stocks are projected to rise sharply to 1.0 mt from the previous year’s low of 0.7 mt and the average of 0.8 mt.
Global Barley Market And Forecast
The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) projects that global barley supply for 2023-24 will be the lowest in five years. While global demand for animal feed is anticipated to hit a five-year low. Demand for food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use will rebound year-on-year. The stocks will approach an all-time low. The USDA’s April projections show larger supply and demand and lower ending stocks compared to the March projections.
For the 2024-25 crop year, Canadian barley production is projected at 9.5 mt, a 7% increase year-on-year, supported by an expected return to average yields despite a smaller seeded area. Total supply is forecasted at 10.5 mt, up 9% year-on-year and 2% above the average. This increase is due to higher production and carry-in stocks more than offsetting lower imports. Total domestic use is projected to rise due to increased supply and higher feed use. Exports are expected to remain stable despite intense competition from major barley-exporting countries, owing to larger domestic supplies.
While Canadian barley supply is lower for 2023-24, the market shows signs of recovery in the next crop year. The anticipated increase in production, stable exports, and higher carry-out stocks indicate a positive outlook for the barley market. Exporters monitor these trends closely to capitalize on the evolving market conditions. The global market fluctuations, particularly in key exporting and importing countries, will also play a crucial role in shaping the future of barley trade.