Canadian Dry Beans Exports Maintain Strength
Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada’s (AAFC) March outlook for the 2023-24 dry beans crop reveals that, despite a lower domestic supply, exports are projected to rise to 390 thousand tonnes (Kt). The United States and the European Union remain the top markets for Canadian dry beans. With smaller quantities shipped to Mexico and Japan. Carry-out stocks are expected to decrease sharply. Average Canadian dry bean prices are forecast to reach record levels due to reduced supply in North America. From August to March, white pea bean prices are 4 percent lower. While pinto and black bean prices are 9 percent and 3 percent higher, respectively, compared to the 2022-23 season.
2024-25 Season Forecasts and Market Trends
Looking ahead to the 2024-25 season, the area seeded to dry beans in Canada is anticipated to rise by 13 percent from 2023-24 to 145 thousand hectares (Kha). This increase is driven by competitive potential returns compared to other crops. Production is expected to rise to 355 Kt due to the higher seeded area. Although the overall supply is forecasted to decline due to lower carry-in stocks. Consequently, exports are predicted to decrease due to lower demand from the US and the EU. While carry-out stocks are expected to rise. The average price of dry beans is forecasted to decrease compared to the previous year but will remain historically high.
US Market Dynamics and Chickpeas Outlook
The US Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) March Prospective Plantings report indicates that the intended US area seeded to dry beans (excluding chickpeas) is forecasted to increase by 12 percent to 1.32 million acres (0.53 million hectares). This rise is largely due to higher seeded areas in North Dakota, Nebraska, and Minnesota. In contrast, Canadian chickpeas exports are projected to be slightly lower, according to AAFC reports. For 2023-24, decreased demand from the US, Pakistan, and the EU has led to a reduction in the forecast for Canadian exports. Carry-out stocks are expected to fall sharply. Due to lower supply, and the average price is forecasted to rise to a record $1,065 per tonne due to average export demand and reduced North American stocks.
Future Projections and Market Adjustments
For the 2024-25 season, the area seeded to chickpeas in Canada is forecasted to rise by 27 percent from 2023-24 due to lower carry-in stocks and the potential for good returns relative to other crops. As a result, production is expected to increase to 225 Kt. With the overall supply forecasted to rise despite the lower carry-in stocks. Exports are expected to remain unchanged, while carry-out stocks are predicted to increase. The average price is forecasted to decrease, reflecting expectations for a higher world supply.
The USDA estimates that the area seeded to chickpeas in the US will rise to 0.43 million acres (0.17 million hectares), up 15 percent from 2023-24. This increase is primarily due to a larger seeded area in Idaho and Washington.