Canary Islands Potato Market Under Pressure: Weak Demand and Incoming Imports Threaten Producers

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The potato sector in the Canary Islands is grappling with a growing crisis during what should be its most profitable period. Despite being in peak harvest season, local potato sales have slumped, dragging wholesale prices well below the cost of production. This precarious situation leaves many producers unable to recover their investments, with prices now ranging from €0.65 to €0.76 per kilogram—far short of the €1.08 per kilogram needed for breakeven. The sector’s fragility is exacerbated by unsold early and mid-season crops filling up both modern cold stores and traditional warehouses, signaling a systemic oversupply that could spiral into further losses if market conditions do not improve soon.

Growers face additional pressure with the upcoming arrival of more competitively priced UK-sourced potatoes, expected in September. If imports begin earlier than planned, local producers fear accelerated price drops and intensified sales struggles. Compounding the challenge is the seasonal drop in demand typically observed in August, making the next few weeks critical for the financial well-being of many farming families. Despite calls for delayed imports to help clear local inventories, uncertainty persists amid a highly competitive market. All eyes are now on the evolving weather conditions and evolving policy responses that will ultimately tip the balance for Canary potato growers over the coming month.

📈 Prices: Current Market Overview

Product Origin Location Latest Price Previous Price Change Sentiment
Potato (local, Canary Islands) ES Canary Islands €0.65–€0.76/kg €1.30/kg -50% to -42% Bearish
Potato starch PL Lodz €1.02/kg €1.02/kg 0% Stable

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

  • Large unsold volumes of early and mid-season potatoes remain in storage (cold and traditional warehouses).
  • Current wholesale prices are below production cost, making sales unprofitable without at least €1.08/kg or effective subsidy support.
  • Imminent arrival of UK imports (likely September) threatens to further depress local prices.
  • Seasonal demand typically weakens in late August, shrinking buyer interest while supply remains high.
  • POSEI subsidies tied to area and sales are key to sector viability but cannot compensate for such low market prices.

📊 Market Fundamentals & External Influences

  • Farmer profitability threshold: €1.08/kg (with subsidies).
  • Current local market prices: €0.65–€0.76/kg (maximum €0.76/kg, more than 40% drop from previous levels).
  • Potato starch price (reference, Poland): Stable at €1.02/kg.
  • Key risk factors: Oversupply, suppressed demand, imports from the UK, and subsidy effectiveness.
  • Farmers’ association calls for import delays to clear local stocks first.

🌤️ Weather Outlook & Regional Impact

  • Canary Islands: Recent weather has generally favored potato storage quality, but forecast shows potential for continued warm and dry conditions—minimizing disease risks but accelerating tuber dehydration in traditional warehouses.
  • UK: Good growing weather signals that imported potatoes will arrive on schedule and potentially at competitive prices.
  • Europe: No major adverse weather events expected that could significantly disrupt imports or shift regional supply balances.

🌐 Global Production, Imports & Export Comparison

Country 2024 Expected Production (kt) 2024 Stocks (kt) Import/Export
Canary Islands ~175 High (est. 30% unsold stocks) Net import (primary source: UK, Spain)
United Kingdom ~5,300 Normal Export to Canary Islands, EU
Poland (reference, potato starch) ~8,900 Stable Mostly export (starch)

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

  • 📉 Producers: Prioritize clearing inventory, even at reduced prices, before import arrivals in September.
  • 💶 Advocate for POSEI subsidies: Engage with authorities to maximize subsidy payouts and support for unsold stocks.
  • Watch for policy changes: Stay alert for potential import delays or temporary restrictions.
  • 🇬🇧 Monitor UK market: Track UK shipping dates and pricing for early signals of further price pressure.
  • 🤝 Collaborate: Form marketing alliances or cooperatives to pool stocks and improve bargaining power.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Canary Islands)

Date Expected Price (€/kg) Market Bias
Day 1 €0.65–€0.75 Bearish
Day 2 €0.64–€0.74 Bearish
Day 3 €0.64–€0.73 Bearish