In-shells
Tanzania auctions for cashew have started and we have seen good demand for the first flushes. Since mid-October, around 20,000 metric tons have been traded, with pricing inching up since the start of the auctions, driven by demand from India for their domestic requirements. Vietnam hasn’t shown real interest yet, but this may change as they need refills of good material to fulfill their commitments until the next NH crops are available for processing during Q1 of 2024.
There is no major update on the 2024 NH crops, yet. It’s too early to state anything until flowering begins starting at the end of the year in some regions and up to around February of next year in Asia. Overall, weather conditions at this stage are less of an importance, but once flowering starts, it will remain a key element.
Reduced availability of good quality in-shell will likely continue to put pressure on availability. With that, expect small inch-ups of in-shell pricing that will continue as well.
Kernels:
Demand continues to be decent – driven by China, the Middle East, and in last few months, in Europe. Consumption in Europe continues to grow at a healthy pace and retailers aren’t shy to offer significant discounts across the region, continuing to boost consumption. Also, the US has started to show signs of recovery as imports in recent months have been quietly strong versus the first half of this year.
De-stocking continues to be at its peak, and spot pricing has inched up versus origin prices. Especially in Europe and the US, where we traditionally have seen high spot demand in Q4, this will likely continue to put pressure on the availability of liquidable grades.
Overall, cashew prices remain favorable which clarifies the high demand from retailers globally to cover as far as possible into FY24 and even as early as FY25. Availability still remains a challenge as the next NH crops (accounting for 85+% of global crops) are not available before March of next year for production and May of next year in destination markets. With in-shell floor pricing unclear currently, and many further challenges for the processor, (cost of production, high interest rates, etc.), it looks highly unlikely Kernel prices can soften much further in the near term.
Bullish Trends
- Destination stocks remain tight and main grades are moving fast.
- Consumption continues to grow in major markets.
- Kernel demand improved significantly across the globe compared to the past few months.
Bearish Trends
- The first batches of Tanzania in-shell auctions have not impacted Kernel prices significantly as of now.
- India’s consumption remains below expectations. Diwali demand has been flat versus last year.
- Retailer forecasts and promotion strategy for next year remain a question mark. Will they continue to promote cashews or continue to add their incurring costs to the shelf prices?
Source: Nuts by ofi