Cashew Market 2025: Vietnam Turns to Cambodia as Raw Cashew Prices Surge

The global cashew market is experiencing significant shifts in 2025, with Vietnam maintaining its status as both the world’s largest importer and processor but facing a growing trade deficit. Customs Department data shows Vietnamese raw cashew imports reached 1.32 million tons in the first five months (up 9.1% year-over-year), but import value soared by nearly 40% to over $2.07 billion—signaling a sharp rise in raw material prices. Most notably, Cambodia now represents 63% of this import value, having exceeded export earnings for all of 2024 in just five months. Vietnamese cashew processors face the dual challenge of costlier imports—Cambodia’s average import price rose 19% to $1,517/ton, Tanzania’s skyrocketed 45% to $1,822/ton, and Nigeria’s jumped 42% to $1,533/ton—and flattened export pricing as global buyers resist passing on higher costs. As a result, despite a strong 19.4% increase in export revenues to $1.88 billion, the industry’s trade balance has turned negative.

Accelerated competition among cashew processors, aggressive import strategies, and ambitious export targets are shaping the market. The weather outlook for major producing regions remains mixed, and logistical dynamics continue to prioritize imports from Cambodia due to proximity. The 2025 outlook hinges on weather, yield, and global demand, with Vietnam’s plan to export $4.5 billion of cashews resting on quality upgrades and new market development.

📈 Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Organic	Delivery Terms	Price (€/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Cashew kernels FS	NL	Dordrecht	No	FCA	3.90	0	Steady
Cashew kernels WW320	NL	Dordrecht	No	FCA	5.20	0	Steady
Cashew kernels WW320	NL	Dordrecht	Yes	FCA	6.30	0	Steady
Cashew kernels WW240	VN	Hanoi	No	FOB	7.65	0	Stable/Firm
Cashew kernels WW320	VN	Hanoi	No	FOB	6.75	0	Stable
Cashew kernels W320	IN	New Delhi	No	FOB	7.09	+0.01	Rising
Cashew kernels W320	IN	New Delhi	Yes	FOB	8.92	+0.01	Firm

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Vietnam: Imported 1.32 million tons (Jan-May 2025), up 9.1% YoY. Import value: $2.07 billion (+39.9%). Exports: $1.88 billion (+19.4%). Trade deficit persists despite export growth.
• Cambodia: Dominates as main supplier; 873,200 tons (+15%), $1.32 billion (+37%) in 5 months. Represents 63% of Vietnam’s import value.
• Tanzania: 133,000 tons (+93%), $242 million (+179%). Price surge to $1,822/ton (+45%).
• Nigeria: 69,000 tons (+67%), $106 million (+138%), price at $1,533/ton (+42%).
• Key driver: Cambodia’s supply chain advantage—land border, low transport cost, rapid delivery (1-2 days).
• Global demand: Robust in developed and emerging markets, but consumers are price-sensitive. Exporters face resistance in passing on cost increases.

📊 Fundamentals

• Raw Cashew Nut (RCN) import prices: Trending sharply higher across all major origins—Cambodia, Tanzania, Nigeria.
• Vietnam processing margins: Squeezed by higher RCN costs, slow adjustment in kernel export prices.
• Speculative activity: No major speculative spikes reported, but tight physical supply keeps sentiment firm.
• VINACAS target: $4.5 billion in cashew exports in 2025 (+130 million YoY); focus on quality, market diversification, and trade promotion.

⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact

• Cambodia & Vietnam: 2025 season marked by above-average rains in late spring, aiding crop establishment but scattered heatwaves may trim yields in July-August harvest. Production is expected stable to slightly lower YoY if dry spells persist.
• West Africa (Tanzania, Nigeria): End-of-season dryness may delay upcoming harvest. Tanzania and Nigeria report good early pod set but some pest pressure and localized drought risk.

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🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	RCN Imports (Jan-May 2025)	Import Value (USD)	YoY Change (Volume)	Stock/Export Situation
Vietnam	1.32m tons	2.07bn	+9.1%	Processors report lower carry-in stock, trade deficit persists
Cambodia	873,200 tons	1.32bn	+15%	Main supply source, >90% output shipped to Vietnam
Tanzania	133,000 tons	242m	+93%	Strong volume, record price
Nigeria	69,000 tons	106m	+67%	Rising exports

📌 Market Drivers

• 💹 Steep increase in RCN prices, especially from Cambodia and Africa
• 🔃 Logistical and geopolitical advantages for Cambodia
• 📦 Strong global demand but limited willingness to absorb higher cost by end users
• 📑 Export ambitions by Vietnamese processors, trade promotion strategies
• 🌦 Weather volatility likely to affect Q3 crop yields

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 🔺 Sellers/Exporters: Maintain firmer offers; cautious positioning due to tight raw nut supply and rising replacement costs.
• 🔻 Buyers/Importers: Secure forward contracts; volatility in raw material prices likely to persist. Focus on origin diversification beyond Cambodia for risk mitigation.
• 🕰 Processors: Tighten operational efficiency, hedge against further input inflation where possible. Delay large spot purchases if expecting post-harvest dips in Q3.
• 📈 Market Participants: Watch weather patterns in SE Asia and West Africa, as production risks remain elevated through mid-Q3.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Origin	Exchange/Base	Current Price (€/kg)	Forecast (Next 3 days)
Vietnam – WW320	FOB Hanoi	6.75	6.75 – 6.80 (steady/firmer tone)
Netherlands – WW320	FCA Dordrecht	5.20	5.20 (steady)
India – W320	FOB New Delhi	7.09	7.10 – 7.15 (slight upward bias)