The global cashew market continues to tread water as ample supplies and limited demand keep prices locked in a narrow range. This week, market participants noted that despite no significant change in spot prices—with India and Vietnam, the world’s two dominant producers, reporting comfortable stock positions—buying activity remains subdued.
The situation is driven by abundant arrivals, ensuring domestic and export markets are well supplied. The flagship 320-count grade held firm at USD 10.96 per quintal, following a negligible uptick earlier in the week. In major exporter hubs like Hanoi and New Delhi, FOB prices for key grades such as WW240, WW320, and WS are showing no movement, underscoring a market in equilibrium. Weak trade interest and an absence of bullish drivers further reinforce the view that prices will remain flat in the short term. Nevertheless, the sector is keeping a close watch on weather patterns in major growing regions and the upcoming harvest outlooks, which could change supply dynamics later in the season. As things stand, comfortable inventories and slack demand are expected to inhibit any significant price rallies, providing buyers with a window of price stability.
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📈 Cashew Prices: Key Export Markets
| Origin | Grade | Price (EUR/kg, FOB) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| VN (Hanoi) | WW240 | 7.75 | 7.75 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| VN (Hanoi) | WW320 | 6.85 | 6.85 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| VN (Hanoi) | WS | 5.75 | 5.75 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| VN (Hanoi) | SP | 4.30 | 4.30 | 2025-09-12 | Stable |
| IN (New Delhi) | W320 | 6.84 | 6.89 | 2025-09-12 | Slightly Lower |
| IN (New Delhi) | W320 Organic | 8.55 | 8.59 | 2025-09-12 | Slightly Lower |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Ample Supply: Major processors in India and Vietnam report high carryover stocks and healthy arrivals, keeping supply robust.
- Muted Demand: Both domestic demand and export buying are soft, as confirmed by weak spot purchasing despite stable prices.
- Stable Market: The lack of speculative activity, comfortable inventories, and steady flows point to continued flat pricing in the near term.
- Previous Trend Comparative: The last report similarly highlighted steady prices and capped upside due to supply overhang and lackluster demand, reinforcing the ongoing trend.
📊 Fundamentals
- Global Production: India and Vietnam remain the top exporters, with Africa (notably Côte d’Ivoire and Nigeria) boosting raw nut output.
- Stock Levels: Stock situations in both Asia and Europe are reported as comfortable, reducing urgency in procurement.
- Importing Countries: USA, EU, and China remain core importers, though 2025 demand has not materially increased over last year.
⛅ Weather/Harvest Outlook
- Vietnam & India Monsoon Update: Recent satellite data and weather reports indicate normal to slightly above-average rainfall, supporting a healthy 2025 harvest. No significant weather threats currently in view.
- African Crop Prospects: West Africa received favorable weather, bolstering supply—overshadowing potential localized issues.
- Implications: Weather-neutral scenario reduces immediate risk premium for prices and supports the expectation of continued steady supply.
🌐 Production & Stock Snapshot
| Country | Est. Raw Nut Output 2025 (‘000 MT) | Est. Kernel Production (‘000 MT) | Stock Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | Approx. 600 | Approx. 370 | Comfortable |
| India | Approx. 800 | Approx. 200 | Comfortable |
| Côte d’Ivoire | Approx. 1,000 | Approx. 80 | Growing |
| Nigeria | Approx. 300 | Approx. 17 | Adequate |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Take advantage of price stability for forward contracts; no immediate need for aggressive coverage.
- Traders: Monitor demand revival in Q4 amid festival seasons; wait for a clearer signal before speculative entry.
- Exporters: Focus on competitive offers and prompt logistics to secure demand in subdued market conditions.
- Watch List: Currency fluctuations, any adverse weather updates, and changes in global freight rates.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Exchanges/Export Hubs)
| Region/Hub | Grade | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Forecast (Next 3 Days) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | WW240 | 7.75 | 7.70 – 7.75 | Steady |
| Hanoi (VN) | WW320 | 6.85 | 6.80 – 6.85 | Steady |
| New Delhi (IN) | W320 | 6.84 | 6.80 – 6.85 | Mildly Soft |
