The global cashew market currently reflects an atmosphere of stability, marked by steady price trends and cautious trading sentiments. Over the past four days, cashew prices have remained unchanged at $9.51/kg, a sign that supply chains and stock levels are sufficiently balanced with current demand. Earlier in the season, prices saw a mild spike attributed to seasonal demand increases and short-lived transportation challenges caused by initial monsoon disruptions. However, as logistics normalized and market demand softened, those price gains dissipated, returning the market to equilibrium.
Traders are adopting a conservative approach, restocking only as needed and showing little eagerness to drive up prices amid unspectacular demand. With monsoon impacts on logistics less severe than in prior years and adequate inventory in the pipeline, there is little expectation among market participants for any sudden moves upward or downward unless untoward weather or unexpected demand triggers materialize. Neutral sentiment prevails, underpinned by a cautious outlook, making the next five to six days likely to feature similar pricing barring external shocks.
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Cashew kernels
WW240
FOB 7.60 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WS
FOB 5.60 €/kg
(from VN)
Cashew kernels
WW320
FOB 6.70 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Organic | Delivery (FOB/FCA) | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WW240 | Vietnam | Hanoi | No | FOB | 7.60 | 7.65 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| WS | Vietnam | Hanoi | No | FOB | 5.60 | 5.65 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| WW320 | Vietnam | Hanoi | No | FOB | 6.70 | 6.75 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| W320 | India | New Delhi | No | FOB | 7.02 | 6.99 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| W320 | India | New Delhi | Yes | FOB | 8.82 | 8.79 | 2025-07-19 | Stable/Bullish |
| WW320 | Netherlands | Dordrecht | No | FCA | 5.18 | 5.20 | 2025-07-18 | Stable |
| WW320 | Netherlands | Dordrecht | Yes | FCA | 6.27 | 6.30 | 2025-07-18 | Stable |
| SWP | India | New Delhi | No | FOB | 5.30 | 5.29 | 2025-07-19 | Stable |
| SWP | Netherlands | Dordrecht | Yes | FCA | 4.93 | 4.95 | 2025-07-18 | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Cashew prices are anchored by consistent stock availability and slack demand, resulting in sideways price action.
- Past upward momentum was sparked by seasonal buying and brief supply hiccups during the early monsoon, but normalized logistics and subdued consumption have eliminated those gains.
- Stockists and traders remain risk-averse, primarily purchasing to cover immediate needs rather than building large inventories.
- There have been no major weather events or logistical barriers thus far in the monsoon season to disrupt the trade flow.
📊 Fundamentals
- The world’s top cashew exporters (Vietnam, India, Ivory Coast) are reporting regular post-harvest logistics, and processor activity remains normal.
- Stock levels in major importing countries and warehouses are reported to be sufficient, discouraging panic buying or speculative accumulation.
- No significant changes reported in international tendering activities or government buffer stock acquisitions.
- Recent USDA and trade data signal steady global production and negligible drawdown of 2025 opening stocks compared to last year.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Vietnam: Monsoonal weather continues but is less severe than in typical years, with scattered rainfall and brief local flooding. No widespread crop or transport issues reported. Dry spells expected in the next 3 days help support steady supply movement.
- India (Kerala, Goa): Rainfall has moderated following the initial monsoon weeks. Outlook for next 3 days is generally favorable with no expected disruptive storms. Cashew processing and logistics are expected to be unaffected.
- Ivory Coast & West Africa: Minor, isolated showers with mostly favorable harvest and port conditions; no significant weather disruptions forecasted for the coming days.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Production (est.) | 2024/25 Stocks (est.) | Export Share (%) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 2.15 Mio t | Low-Moderate | 53 |
| India | 0.85 Mio t | Moderate | 17 |
| Ivory Coast | 1.25 Mio t | Moderate | 20 |
| Nigeria | 0.25 Mio t | Low | 5 |
| Brazil | 0.15 Mio t | Low | 3 |
📉 Market Drivers & Sentiment
- USDA & Global Stocks: No new bullish changes or government buying activity noted.
- Speculative Positioning: Most traders remain on the sidelines, with limited appetite for directional bets.
- Seasonality: Consumption typically picks up later in the year; subdued off-season demand underpins stability for now.
- Weather Risks: Watch for late monsoon disruptions, particularly in India and Vietnam, but prospects remain benign in the short-run.
📆 3-Day Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect prices to hover within current bands (EUR 7.60-7.65/kg for Vietnam WW240, EUR 6.70-6.75/kg for Vietnam WW320) barring new weather or logistics shocks.
- Buyers: Consider spot cover for short-term needs; no incentive to stockpile with market well-supplied and prices steady.
- Sellers: Maintain regular offering; prompt shipment can attract steady demand.
- Watch for signs of potential tightening from logistics updates or unseasonal storms.
| Exchange/Location | Product | 3-Day Price Forecast (EUR/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (VN) | WW240 | 7.60 – 7.68 | Neutral |
| Hanoi (VN) | WW320 | 6.70 – 6.78 | Neutral |
| New Delhi (IN) | W320 | 7.02 – 7.12 | Neutral |
| Dordrecht (NL) | WW320 | 5.18 – 5.24 | Neutral |
