The global cashew market is facing a period of heightened uncertainty following the recent sinking of the vessel Elisa 3 off the Alappuzha coast, which reportedly carried around 500 tonnes of raw cashew nuts valued at $1.9 million. This incident, involving a shipment from Ghana destined for Tuticorin, India, is expected to disrupt processing schedules at key Indian cashew factories, particularly in Tuticorin and Kerala. As the raw cashew season ramps up in Africa, importers are bracing for further logistical challenges and potential supply shortages. The industry is closely monitoring compensation negotiations with MSC Shipping Lines, while also preparing for increased volatility as more consignments are expected in the coming weeks. With the onset of monsoon in India and the start of the African harvest season, the interplay between weather, shipping logistics, and demand will be critical in shaping near-term market dynamics. Market participants are advised to stay vigilant as price movements and supply risks are likely to intensify in the short term, especially with potential impacts on both raw and processed cashew availability.
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📈 Latest Cashew Kernel Prices
| Type | Origin | Location | Organic | Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price (USD/kg) | Change | Date |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WW320 | VN | Hanoi | No | 6.80 | 6.85 | -0.05 | 2025-05-24 |
| WW240 | VN | Hanoi | No | 7.70 | 7.65 | +0.05 | 2025-05-24 |
| W320 | IN | New Delhi | No | 7.14 | 7.17 | -0.03 | 2025-05-24 |
| W320 | IN | New Delhi | Yes | 9.07 | 9.11 | -0.04 | 2025-05-24 |
| W240 | IN | New Delhi | No | 7.80 | 7.83 | -0.03 | 2025-05-24 |
| W240 | IN | New Delhi | Yes | 8.19 | 8.22 | -0.03 | 2025-05-24 |
| WW320 | NL | Dordrecht | No | 5.38 | 5.38 | 0.00 | 2025-05-22 |
| WW320 | NL | Dordrecht | Yes | 6.47 | 6.47 | 0.00 | 2025-05-22 |
🌍 Supply & Demand Overview
- Supply Disruption: The sinking of Elisa 3 has led to the presumed loss of 500 tonnes of raw cashew nuts from Ghana, creating immediate supply chain disruptions for Indian processors.
- Seasonal Factors: The African raw cashew season is underway, with more shipments expected. However, logistical bottlenecks and shipping risks could delay arrivals.
- Indian Processing Impact: Factories in Tuticorin and Kerala face raw material shortages, likely leading to tighter supplies in the processed cashew market.
- Global Demand: Demand for cashew kernels remains robust, especially in Europe and North America, supporting price stability despite recent volatility.
📊 Market Fundamentals
- Inventory Levels: Indian and Vietnamese stocks are reportedly lower than last year, amplifying the impact of any further supply disruptions.
- Speculative Positioning: Market participants are cautious, with some hedging against further shipping losses and potential insurance delays.
- Shipping & Insurance: Importers are seeking compensation via P&I Clubs, but delays in settlement could affect future shipment planning and risk premiums.
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- India (Kerala, Tuticorin): Monsoon has started, which may slow port operations and further delay raw cashew deliveries. However, it supports local agricultural activity.
- Africa (Ghana, Nigeria, Ivory Coast): Weather remains favorable for harvest, but increased rainfall could affect transport logistics in the coming weeks.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024 Est. Production (kt) | 2023 Stocks (kt) | 2024 YTD Exports (kt) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 450 | 80 | 120 |
| India | 800 | 110 | 100 |
| Ghana | 220 | 30 | 40 |
| Ivory Coast | 950 | 150 | 200 |
| Nigeria | 290 | 40 | 45 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Watch for further shipping/insurance updates on the Elisa 3 incident; any delays in compensation or additional losses could trigger price spikes.
- Processors should secure raw material contracts early, given the risk of further supply disruptions from Africa.
- Exporters may benefit from current price stability but should hedge against potential volatility in the coming weeks.
- Monitor monsoon progression in India and rainfall patterns in West Africa for any impact on harvest and logistics.
- Short-term sentiment: Neutral to Slightly Bullish due to supply risks and steady demand.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Kernel Type | Current Price (USD/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (USD/kg) | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam (Hanoi) | WW320 | 6.80 | 6.85 – 7.00 | Bullish |
| India (New Delhi) | W320 | 7.14 | 7.20 – 7.30 | Bullish |
| Netherlands (Dordrecht) | WW320 | 5.38 | 5.40 – 5.45 | Neutral |