The global cashew market stands at a delicate crossroads this June, with supply chains jolted by the loss of a major raw cashew shipment off the Indian coast and legal entanglements over undelivered cargoes. The recent detainment of MSC Manafa F in Kerala—following the sinking of its sister ship MSC Elsa 3 with vital raw cashew cargo intended for Indian processors—has triggered fresh claims and underscored importers’ vulnerability to maritime risk. With Indian importers demanding compensation and raw material flows momentarily disrupted, market participants are closely tracking the legal resolution, even as stable spot prices betray a simmering sense of caution.
Meanwhile, market prices for processed kernels remain firm but show minimal week-on-week movement across major export corridors from Vietnam, India, and the Netherlands. The Indian rupee’s mild depreciation, together with tight official stockpiles and the seasonal onset of monsoons across major Asian origins, is expected to play a pivotal role ahead. Globally, buyers are advised to navigate carefully, as weather volatility and potential insurance-driven supply lags could yet prompt sudden shifts in both raw nut and kernel valuations. Demand prospects remain steady outside of the supply disruption—without a clear signal for major trend reversal, but with underlying risks that warrant close monitoring.
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Cashew kernels
WW320
FOB 6.75 €/kg
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FOB 7.65 €/kg
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WS
FOB 5.65 €/kg
(from VN)
📈 Cashew Kernel Prices: Global Market Table
| Product | Origin | Location | Grade | Organic | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WW320 | Vietnam | Hanoi | WW320 | No | FOB | 6.75 | 0.00 | Steady |
| WW240 | Vietnam | Hanoi | WW240 | No | FOB | 7.65 | 0.00 | Steady |
| WS | Vietnam | Hanoi | WS | No | FOB | 5.65 | 0.00 | Steady |
| W320 | India | New Delhi | W320 | No | FOB | 7.08 | -0.01 | Steady/Watch |
| W320 | India | New Delhi | W320 | Yes | FOB | 8.91 | -0.10 | Stable/Soft |
| WW320 | Netherlands | Dordrecht | WW320 | No | FCA | 5.25 | -0.05 | Mildly Bearish |
| WW320 | Netherlands | Dordrecht | WW320 | Yes | FCA | 6.35 | -0.04 | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand: Disruption, Flow, and Inventories
- Supply Disruption: The capsizing of MSC Elsa 3 delayed 2024 supply into India—the world’s largest raw cashew importer and processor. Legal avenues are triggered to secure raw nut compensation; physical flows are pending resolution, constraining available stockpiles for Indian processors.
- Exports from Vietnam: Remain regular as the key global kernel supplier, though anticipated late-monsoon rains could impact upcoming harvest and logistics windows.
- European Inventory: Dutch wholesale prices slightly eased, indicating comfortable stock levels but trigger vigilance in case of subsequent supply issues in Asia.
- Speculative Positioning: Kernel trading volumes in Vietnam and India remain subdued; no major shift by funds or exporters, but potential for higher volatility exists if India’s raw nut supply recovery lags.
📊 Market Fundamentals and External Drivers
- 📝 Legal Claims: Kerala High Court’s deposit mandate for carrier MSC Manafa F adds pressure on shipping lines to clarify liability and swiftly resolve claims on the missing raw cashew cargo.
- 🌡️ Weather Impact: Onset of the Southwest Monsoon in India and Vietnam brings timely rains—beneficial if regular, but excess rainfall could disrupt harvest, drying, and transport.
- 📦 Raw Cashew Availability: Most large Indian processors are currently well-covered, but smaller operators may face short-term shortages, accelerating purchases and supporting price floors.
- 📤 Export Demand: Steady, particularly from the EU and MENA, where consumer prices remain elevated yet underpinned by retail demand stability.
- 🛄 Import/Export Summary:
- Vietnam: Remains top global exporter, with processing margins stable; no significant dented flows yet.
- India: Facing a short-term raw nut gap due to the shipment loss, but overall import volumes year-to-date are slightly ahead of 2023 pace.
- Africa (West): Continues ramping up raw nut shipments, mostly unaffected by current logistics events but with higher trade to Vietnam than to India.
🌦️ Weather Outlook: Key Cashew-Growing Regions
- India (Goa, Kerala, TN): Monsoon rains are advancing in line with schedule, but localized heavy rainfall is forecast over the next 3 days. Field reports note increased disease risk to pods and drying setbacks if precipitation persists above average. Watch for shipping delays out of Kerala/New Mangalore/Thoothukudi.
- Vietnam (Binh Phuoc, Dong Nai): Scattered showers predicted, which should favor nut development unless prolonged, in which case harvest and drying may be interrupted.
- West Africa: The dry season is prevailing, with harvest already completed and nuts in the pipeline to Asia—no imminent weather risks noted.
🌏 Global Production & Stock Comparison Table
| Country/Region | 2024 Production Estimate (t) | Ending Stocks (t) | 2023/24 vs 2022/23 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 440,000 | 28,500 | +2.3% |
| India | 670,000 | 56,200 | +1.5% (before shipment loss) |
| Ivory Coast | 1,180,000 | n/a | +2.0% |
| Guinea Bissau | 230,000 | n/a | Flat |
| Tanzania | 230,000 | n/a | +1.7% |
| Netherlands (warehousing) | n/a | 18,000 | Stock neutral |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 📌 Kernel Buyers: Secure spot contracts, especially for W320/W240 grades, as Indian processors may face inflow gaps for the next 2–3 weeks. Consider forward purchases to hedge against possible supply-driven price bumps.
- 📌 Importers/Processors (India): Monitor legal developments and be prepared for insurance claim-related time lags. Prioritize shipments from Vietnam and Africa to fill short-term raw nut requirements.
- 📌 Exporters (Vietnam/Africa): Take advantage of firm demand from India and the EU; price offers can be maintained given tight but covered global supply.
- 📌 Speculators/Traders: Expect muted volatility in the short-term, but be alert for sudden spikes if new logistics or insurance announcements occur in India.
- 📌 Risk: Watch currency moves (especially INR and VND), ongoing weather effects, and shipping updates out of India’s main ports.
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Location/Exchange | Product | Current Price (€/kg) | 3-Day Forecast | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hanoi (FOB) | WW320 | 6.75 | 6.75–6.80 | Stable/Firm |
| New Delhi (FOB) | W320 | 7.08 | 7.08–7.15 | Stable (Watch for India developments) |
| Dordrecht (FCA) | WW320 | 5.25 | 5.20–5.25 | Mildly Soft |
