Cashew Market Outlook: Price Surge Stalls Amid Steady Supply and Stable Demand

The global cashew market has recently experienced brisk price hikes, with momentum fueled by increased buying interest. This week alone saw prices increase by $0.30 per kg to $13.63 per kg in leading international trade hubs, continuing a recent upward trend. Yet, despite this bullish surge, the upward price movement appears poised for a temporary pause. Market observers attribute this potential stabilization to consistent arrivals at major processing centers and plentiful domestic stocks, which are expected to temper further price gains in the near term.

Unless there’s a significant spike in export activity or supply chain disruptions—both of which could reignite upward pressure on prices—current projections point toward steadiness in the market over the upcoming sessions. For stakeholders, this signals both reassurance regarding availability and a cue to closely watch for potential shifts in fundamentals.

📈 Prices At a Glance

Product	Type	Origin	Location	Delivery	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Change (€)	Market Sentiment
Cashew kernels	WW240	VN	Hanoi	FOB	7.75	7.75	0.00	Stable
Cashew kernels	WS	VN	Hanoi	FOB	5.75	5.75	0.00	Stable
Cashew kernels	SP	VN	Hanoi	FOB	4.30	4.30	0.00	Stable
Cashew kernels	WW320	VN	Hanoi	FOB	6.85	6.85	0.00	Stable
Cashew kernels	W320	IN	New Delhi	FOB	6.84	6.89	-0.05	Softening
Cashew kernels	Organic W320	IN	New Delhi	FOB	8.55	8.59	-0.04	Softening

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Steady arrivals and sufficient domestic stocks in Vietnam and India continue to buffer the impact of recent buying sprees.
• Export demand remains subdued but could change with shifting global retail trends or regulatory incentives.
• No recent disruptions reported in key African origins (Nigeria, Ivory Coast, Benin), supporting market stability.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Recent price gains of $0.24–0.30/kg in major trade centers suggest speculative positioning is present, but fundamentals remain balanced due to ample supply.
• Global inventories, especially in Vietnam (leading processor and exporter), are above average thanks to strong prior harvests and efficient logistics.
• India, a major consumer and exporter, has seen some price softening as domestic arrivals improved.

⛅ Weather Outlook

• Vietnam: Rainfall has been seasonally average in main cashew regions, supporting crop health and kernel yields.
• India: The Southwest monsoon in Kerala and Maharashtra, critical to cashew orchards, has performed close to normal. Little risk seen for near-term production disruptions.
• Africa: No adverse weather reports from West African origins, indicating a stable output outlook.

🌐 Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2023/24 Output (est. 000 t)	2023/24 Ending Stocks (000 t)	Change YoY
Vietnam	540	110	+5%
India	800	70	+2%
Nigeria	275	47	+7%
Ivory Coast	950	90	Static

📌 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short-term price stability is likely unless export demand surges or weather disrupts supply chains.
• Buyers should consider covering near-term requirements on dips—further significant price drops are unlikely given ongoing global demand.
• Processors and exporters should monitor inventories and ocean freight closely; supply chains remain crucial to price direction.
• Speculators should watch for signals of unexpected demand or harvest shocks, which may trigger renewed volatility.

📆 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Region	Kernel Type	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast (3 days)
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW240	7.75	7.70–7.80 (Stable to slightly weaker)
Vietnam (Hanoi)	WW320	6.85	6.80–6.90 (Stable)
India (New Delhi)	W320 (Conv.)	6.84	6.80–6.90 (Stable)
Netherlands (Dordrecht)	WW320	5.20	5.15–5.25 (Stable)

Summary: Cashew prices have surged on robust buying but now approach a stabilization phase. Market fundamentals and ample supply from key producing nations should limit near-term upside unless a disruptive event changes the demand-supply balance. Watch for demand signals and weather over the coming week.