The global cashew market is at a turning point, shaped by sudden weather disruptions, emerging supply constraints, and the overhanging threat of tariff adjustments. This past week, activity in key producing centers such as Kollam, India, was severely hampered by unrelenting storms and subsequent power outages. Trade volumes were subdued, and factory throughput plummeted, resulting in exceptionally quiet market conditions. Meanwhile, Vietnam—the world’s largest exporter—saw heightened interest in popular cashew grades (W240, W320, WS), yet actual trading volumes remained limited due to low forward coverage and shipment delays. Market participants are grappling with very limited kernel and raw seed commitments for July through December, and softer seed prices have nudged medium-sized packers to gently cut their prices for leading grades. However, the firm pricing of broken and W450 grades is anticipated to persist until fresh West African crop arrivals.
Adding complexity, major importers—especially those in the U.S.—remain on the sidelines, with much of their demand masked by uncertainty pending post-July 9 tariff decisions. Any tariff hike, particularly under former President Trump’s trade agenda, could reshape buying behaviors and pricing structures instantly. Yet this market lull is building substantial pent-up demand. When policy clarity emerges, a flurry of activity could ignite a sharp rebound in spot prices, especially as robust demand persists from importers needing to replenish diminished inventories without taking on high price risks or accepting slow deliveries.
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📈 Prices
| Grade | Origin | Location | FOB/FCA | Latest Price (USD/kg) | Prev. Price (USD/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WW240 | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 7.65 | 7.70 | -0.65% | Softening, moderate |
| W320 | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 6.75 | 6.80 | -0.74% | Stable to soft |
| WS | Vietnam | Hanoi | FOB | 5.65 | 5.70 | -0.88% | Soft |
| W450 | India | New Delhi | FOB | 6.46 | 6.50 | -0.62% | Firm |
| W320 (Organic) | India | New Delhi | FOB | 9.01 | 9.07 | -0.66% | Stable |
| WW320 | Netherlands | Dordrecht | FCA | 5.30 | 5.35 | -0.93% | Soft, EU markets |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Kollam factories reported operational stands still due to storms and power outages, suppressing supply chain efficiency and trade volumes.
- Vietnam: Despite active inquiries for major grades, trading volume is limited as forward coverage (July–Dec) is notably low. Some medium packers reduced prices on W240/W320, but logistics delays persist.
- West Africa: Awaited crop arrivals expected in coming weeks; any further delay could pressure broken grades and W450 prices upwards.
- Global Buy-Side: Buyers, notably in the U.S., are hesitant to lock in volume contracts ahead of potential tariff announcements after July 9. Spot demand remains robust, particularly from those previously sidelined at higher prices or slow deliveries.
📊 Fundamentals
- Crop Disruptions: Collam, India, experienced severe weather—impacting harvest and processing throughput.
- Forward Commitments: Dangerously low for second half of 2025 in both kernels and raw seeds, exacerbating logistical concerns.
- Price Action: Softer for Vietnamese W320/W240. Broken and small grades remain firm in price until West African crop clarity emerges.
- Inventory: Processors, especially in Vietnam, are cautious in committing, leading to lower seed purchases and keeping pipeline lean.
⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- India (Kollam): Ongoing storm activity with a forecast for continued sporadic heavy showers over the next three days. This could hamper fieldwork and slow the return to full processing capacity.
- Vietnam: Seasonally hot and dry spell forecast for the next several days. Dryness could stress upcoming nut development if prolonged, but no immediate threat to existing crop supplies.
- West Africa: Normal to above-average rainfall expected in cashew-producing regions, supporting crop development and expected to mitigate delays if harvest proceeds smoothly.
🌏 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024 Output Estimate (kt) | 2023 Output (kt) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 470 | 461 | Lean, cautious buying |
| India | 345 | 350 | Impacted by weather, down |
| Ivory Coast | 950 | 900 | Stable, arrivals awaited |
| Brazil | 120 | 115 | Steady |
| Burkina Faso | 120 | 110 | Improving |
📌 Market Drivers
- USDA & Local Reports: Highlight weather risk (India) and logistics delays (Vietnam/West Africa).
- Speculative Positioning: Traders are reticent; recent softness reflects macro caution rather than oversupply.
- Tariff Shock Potential: Possible U.S. tariff adjustments after July 9 are the prime wildcard for direction—strong rebound potential if uncertainty resolves favorably for importers.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Spot buyers should cover near-term needs promptly as price softness could vanish amid a post-tariff rebound.
- Exporters: Use current lull to lock in sales for remaining 2025 delivery slots, particularly for broken and W450 grades.
- Importers: Beware of shipment delays and monitor developments on U.S. tariffs closely; be prepared for quick action once clarity emerges.
- Speculation: Wait for post-July 9 developments before committing to large positions, potential price spike if pent-up demand releases.
🎯 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region/Grade | Spot Price (USD/kg) | Change Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Vietnam WW320 | 6.75 | ↔ Likely steady, risk of rebound |
| India W320 (organic) | 9.01 | ↔ Stable, upside risk post-storm |
| India W450 | 6.46 | ↑ Supported, limited fresh arrivals |
Market participants should stay alert for volatility post-tariff decision and monitor weather disruptions across South and Southeast Asia for renewed supply-side shocks.
