Cashew Market Reels from US Tariffs: Prices Hold but Outlook Turns Cautious

The global cashew market is at a tipping point following a seismic policy shift by the United States—Kerala, India’s major cashew export hub, now faces 50% tariffs on Indian goods directed to the US. This abrupt measure has triggered order cancellations, unsold inventories, and eroding profits for Indian exporters. The immediate impact has rattled the supply chain, affecting over a fifth of Kerala’s total exports, with seafood, spices, and cashews bearing the brunt. Simultaneously, Vietnam, the world’s largest cashew processor and exporter, holds steady, but with wary eyes on shifting global demand patterns.

At the same time, EU and Asian buyers have become increasingly significant as Indian exporters scramble to redirect volumes and sustain cashflows. The market remains calm on the price front, with Vietnamese WW240 kernels quoted at 7.75 EUR/kg and Indian W320 at 6.89 EUR/kg (FOB New Delhi), yet the underlying sentiment is cautious. Risks of long-term market loss to Southeast Asian and Latin American competitors loom large if Indian relief measures and new trade agreements don’t materialize swiftly. Exporters and growers await clarity, hoping for government intervention and a stable weather pattern for the looming harvest. For now, all eyes remain on the ability of Indian processors to adapt while buyers assess their procurement options in a rapidly changing trade landscape.

📈 Cashew Kernel Prices

Type	Origin	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
WW240	VN	Hanoi	FOB	7.75	7.75	0%	Stable/Cautious
WS	VN	Hanoi	FOB	5.75	5.75	0%	Stable
SP	VN	Hanoi	FOB	4.30	4.30	0%	Stable
WW320	IN	New Delhi	FOB	6.89	6.92	-0.43%	Weakening
W320 (Organic)	IN	New Delhi	FOB	8.59	8.62	-0.35%	Softening
W240	IN	New Delhi	FOB	7.43	7.46	-0.40%	Weakening

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• Exports Under Pressure: India faces diminishing US orders (formerly top-2 export destination), with volumes shifting to EU and Asian buyers.
• Inventory Build-Up: Warehouses in Kerala and key processing zones report swelling unsold stocks due to abrupt US demand drop. Industry fears permanent loss of US market share.
• Vietnam’s Advantage: Vietnamese exporters are stable, monitoring the situation to gain competitive edge if Western buyers diversify away from India.
• Southeast Asia & Latin America: Buyers could increase purchases from Brazil, Ivory Coast, and African exporters as India’s position weakens.
• Multipronged Troubles: The US tariffs also hit seafood and other agri products—cashew exporters fear spillover in logistics and credit availability.

📊 Market Fundamentals

• Policy Risk: US’s combined 50% tariff (retaliation for India-Russia oil ties) is a game-changer—analysts predict 50–70% export declines for segments including cashew.
• Support Measures Sought: Industry lobbies urge credit relief, transport subsidies, and government intervention.
• Price Performance: European and Vietnamese export prices for most grades unchanged week-on-week. Indian kernels dip marginally (0.3–0.5%).
• Listed Companies: Kerala-based processors and exporters see share price declines and market capitalization erosion.
• Inventory Financing Stress: With payments delayed and sales to the US on hold, working capital and cashflows under significant duress.

🌦️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• India (Kerala/Goa/Maharashtra): Monsoon conditions remain seasonally normal, but excess rains in western states may hinder harvesting and increase post-harvest losses.
• Vietnam: Generally favorable weather; scattered showers expected in southern provinces, supporting upcoming crop quality. No severe weather threats reported.
• Africa (Ivory Coast, Nigeria): Stable conditions, but delayed rains in coastal zones could trim yields by 1–3%.

🌏 Global Production & Stocks

Country	Crop Year	Production (kt)	Carry Stocks (kt)	Key Export Destinations
Vietnam	2024/25 (est.)	520	120	US, EU, China
India	2024/25 (est.)	800	180	EU, UAE, S. Arabia
Ivory Coast	2024/25 (est.)	660	90	Vietnam, India
Nigeria	2024/25 (est.)	260	30	Vietnam, India, EU

📆 Market Outlook & Trading Recommendations

• Short-term price stability expected for Vietnamese kernels; Indian kernel prices may weaken further pending clarity on US-bound stock liquidation.
• Buyers are advised to closely monitor Indian offers—steep discounts likely for excess US stock redirections over the next 2–4 weeks.
• EU and Asian importers could secure improved terms as Indian suppliers adjust to lost US business.
• Indian processors seeking immediate exports should consider new markets and flexible payment/credit solutions to offset delayed receipts.
• Monitor weather developments in West Africa for potential late-season supply shocks.
• Policy watchers: Stay alert for possible relief packages or interventions from New Delhi; these could shift price trajectories rapidly.

⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Grade	Origin	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
WW240	Vietnam (FOB Hanoi)	7.75	7.70 – 7.80	Stable
WW320	India (FOB New Delhi)	6.89	6.85 – 6.95	Slightly Lower
WW320	Vietnam (FOB Hanoi)	6.85	6.85 – 6.90	Stable

Last Report Comparison: Cashew prices were steady with a firm tone last cycle; the US tariff escalation has since triggered new downside risk for Indian exporters, marking a pivot in export flows and risk assessment for the remainder of 2024.