Cashew prices continued to trend lower this week, reflecting subdued demand and ample inventories across key trading regions. In Delhi, wholesale prices for standard grades hovered around USD 13.50 per kg, experiencing a week-on-week decline of approximately USD 0.12–0.18. Market players cited soft demand as the primary culprit, exacerbated by weaker bulk buying and a lack of festival-driven retail activity.
Sufficient stock availability has provided an additional bearish undertone, restraining any significant rebound in prices. Traders report that, despite a stable flow of arrivals from producing origins such as India and Vietnam, buyers are reluctant to commit to larger positions, given persistent high inventories at both the industrial and retail levels. On the global stage, cashew prices in Europe and Vietnam have largely mirrored this sluggish tone, maintaining a downward bias. Without a clear bullish catalyst or a shift in inventory dynamics, the outlook for the cashew market remains cautious in the near term.
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Cashew kernels
W450
FOB 6.23 €/kg
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Cashew kernels
W320
FOB 8.59 €/kg
(from IN)
Cashew kernels
W320
FOB 6.88 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Grade | Origin | Location | Organic | Delivery | Current Price (EUR/kg) | Prev. Price (EUR/kg) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| W450 | IN | New Delhi | No | FOB | 6.23 | 6.23 | Bearish |
| W320 | IN | New Delhi | Yes | FOB | 8.59 | 8.59 | Bearish |
| W320 | IN | New Delhi | No | FOB | 6.88 | 6.88 | Bearish |
| WW240 | VN | Hanoi | No | FOB | 7.70 | 7.70 | Neutral |
| WW320 | VN | Hanoi | No | FOB | 6.80 | 6.80 | Neutral |
| WW320 | NL | Dordrecht | No | FCA | 5.05 | 5.10 | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- India: Stable arrivals but sluggish local and export demand due to high inventories.
- Vietnam: Processing running at normal pace; exporters report caution as Western demand slows before winter holidays.
- Europe: Lower spot prices in Rotterdam and Dordrecht as trading turns hand-to-mouth.
- Global Inventories: Build-up in stockpiles in top consuming regions has capped any upward price moves.
- Domestic Consumption (India): Muted festival buying fails to support prices this month.
📊 Fundamentals
- Speculative Positioning: Minimal, with physical buyers running thin positions and avoiding forward contracts.
- USDA & Crop Data: Preliminary figures suggest India and Vietnam output remains steady year-on-year; some localized downward revisions expected if dry weather persists.
- Comparative Stocks:
Country 2024 Production (‘000 MT) Stocks (‘000 MT) India 800 175 Vietnam 510 110 Nigeria 290 45 Brazil 130 23 Total 1,730 353 - Market Comparison to Last Period: Compared to our last analysis, prices have dropped further—by 0.12–0.18 USD/kg in India and 0.5–1% in Europe.
☁️ Weather Outlook
- India (Goa, Kerala): Recent monsoon rains tapering off; localized dry spells could impact flowering for the 2025 crop.
- Vietnam (Binh Phuoc): Dry and warm conditions persist; risk of lower yields if rains do not resume within two weeks.
- Africa: Generally favorable weather but watch for late-season storms in Nigeria and Ivory Coast, which could impact remaining harvests.
📌 Key Market Drivers
- Sufficient inventory in India and Europe, suppressing speculative interest.
- Muted seasonal/festival demand, especially in the Indian retail trade.
- Steady supply flows from Vietnam and Africa keeping the market balanced.
- Potential weather risks ahead of next year’s crop in both India and Vietnam.
- Lack of bullish triggers; buyers remain price sensitive and transaction volumes remain low.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- 🟠 Buyers: Adopt a hand-to-mouth strategy; avoid large forward commitments as further downside is possible.
- 🟠 Sellers: Consider offering small increments at market to attract hesitant buyers; avoid holding out for quick rebounds.
- 🔴 Speculators: Market activity is thin—avoid aggressive long positions until there are clear signs of tightening supply or demand revival.
- 🟠 Importers/Processors: Monitor the weather in Vietnam and Western India for crop updates before locking in large future purchases.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Region | Grade | Today (EUR/kg) | +1 Day | +2 Day | +3 Day | Forecast Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi | W320 (Conv.) | 6.88 | 6.85 | 6.82 | 6.80 | Slight Softening |
| Hanoi | WW320 | 6.80 | 6.80 | 6.77 | 6.75 | Steady/Soft |
| Dordrecht | WW320 | 5.05 | 5.04 | 5.02 | 5.00 | Slight Decline |
