The cassia (cinnamon) market in 2024 highlights Vietnam’s continued dominance as a global powerhouse. Vietnam’s cassia exports soared to nearly 100,000 metric tons, generating $274.5 million—an 11.7% annual volume increase. However, trends beneath the headline numbers reveal both promise and persistent challenges. While India remains Vietnam’s top buyer, purchases dropped by 5.7%, signaling potential demand softening or greater competition. In contrast, exports to the US and Bangladesh gained 9% and 42.5%, respectively, confirming diversifying demand across Western and emerging Asian markets.
The context for these gains is a backdrop of extensive cultivation (180,000 ha), ample reserves (up to 1.2M tons), and stable harvests, keeping Vietnam well-supplied for the near future. Nevertheless, structural hurdles persist: stringent regulations in high-value importing regions like the EU and US force many Vietnamese processors to seek imported cassia to meet demanding standards. This strategy, though it boosts quality and supports product innovation, introduces new complexities to sourcing and branding. Looking ahead, the sector’s growth prospects rest on research, regional branding, and investment in technology and logistics. As competition intensifies and buyer requirements evolve, only a coordinated, value-focused response will sustain Vietnam’s leadership in the global cassia trade.
📈 Prices
| Exchange/Location | Product | Purity | Organic | Origin | Delivery Terms | Last Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Cassia (Whole) | – | Yes | India | FOB | 5.4 | 0.0% | Stable |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Vietnam 2024 Cassia Exports: 99,874 MT (+11.7% YoY), revenues $274.5M (+5.2% YoY).
- Top Buyer: India (35,885 MT, 35.9% share, -5.7% YoY)
- US (2nd largest): 11,078 MT (+9.0% YoY)
- Bangladesh: 7,928 MT (+42.5% YoY)
- Average annual harvest: 70,000–80,000 MT
- Total cultivated area: 180,000 hectares
- National reserves: 900,000–1,200,000 MT
📊 Fundamentals
- Strong production base: Large planted area, high annual harvest, strategic reserves
- Diversifying markets: While India remains dominant, fast growth in US, Bangladesh
- Quality challenges: High-value buyers demand stricter standards; reliance on imports to meet specs
- Value-added focus: Deep processing & blending to meet market specifications and diversify risk
📆 Market Drivers & Outlook
- International demand for both raw and processed cassia remains solid
- India’s softer demand may reflect shifting local stocks or increased sourcing from other major producers
- Regulatory pressure from US/EU is pushing quality improvements and driving shifts in supply chains
- Investments in traceability, product standardization, and branding to play increasingly important role
- Stable prices in origin markets parallel modest upticks in export volumes and total value
⛅ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact
- Key cassia regions in northern Vietnam experiencing a typical monsoon season in July 2024, with above-averages rains favoring tree development but increasing risks of local flooding and disease pressure
- Short-term forecast (next week): continued warm temperatures (~28–33°C), daily thunderstorms in Northwest provinces (Yen Bai, Quang Ninh)
- Yield outlook for the 2024/25 harvest remains positive, barring major weather shocks
📊 Global Production & Stocks Comparison
| Country | 2024 Output (MT) | Estimated Stocks (MT) | Key Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vietnam | 75,000–80,000 | 900,000–1,200,000 | World’s leading exporter, large reserves |
| Indonesia | 40,000–45,000 | 250,000 | Major regional competitor |
| China | 35,000–40,000 | 200,000 | Key producer, increasing share in high-end segments |
🚦 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Producers: Focus on quality control, participate in traceability and certification programs to access premium markets.
- Exporters: Target US and Bangladesh growth; diversify product mix with value-added and blended cassia.
- Importers: Leverage current stable prices and anticipated harvest; secure forward contracts to lock in supply.
- Investors: Monitor Vietnamese government initiatives for research and logistics upgrades—likely to boost sector margins.
📅 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (New Delhi/FOB, EUR/kg)
| Date | Forecast Price (EUR/kg) | Market Note |
|---|---|---|
| 2024-07-05 | 5.4 | Stable; balanced supply and demand |
| 2024-07-06 | 5.4 | Unchanged outlook; no reported disruptions |
| 2024-07-07 | 5.4 | Monsoon season; market remains steady |