Market Update: CBoT Wheat Prices Show Moderate Gains Across All Contracts (Data from Friday, January 10, 2025)
Wheat prices at the Chicago Board of Trade (CBoT) posted moderate gains across all contracts on Friday, January 10, 2025. These price movements reflect a positive market sentiment supported by technical buying and robust export demand.
CBoT Price Overview (January 10, 2025, Closing Prices)
| Contract | Last Price (US-Cent/bu) | Change (US-Cent) | Change (%) | High (US-Cent) | Low (US-Cent) | Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2025 | 535.75 | +5.00 | +0.94% | 536.00 | 528.50 | 4,967 | 260,803 |
| May 2025 | 548.00 | +4.50 | +0.83% | 548.00 | 541.75 | 746 | 95,261 |
| July 2025 | 558.75 | +4.25 | +0.77% | 559.00 | 552.25 | 784 | 79,878 |
| September 2025 | 571.75 | +3.25 | +0.57% | 572.50 | 566.75 | 501 | 27,173 |
| December 2025 | 591.50 | +2.50 | +0.42% | 593.00 | 586.75 | 326 | 15,503 |
The 2025 contracts showed consistent gains, led by the March contract with a +5.00 US cents/bu (+0.94%) increase, supported by high trading volume of 4,967 contracts.
Performance of 2026 and 2027 Contracts
Longer-dated contracts also gained, buoyed by stable demand and technical buying.
| Contract | Last Price (US-Cent/bu) | Change (US-Cent) | Change (%) | Volume | Open Interest |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| March 2026 | 610.50 | +3.25 | +0.54% | 54 | 3,881 |
| May 2026 | 617.75 | +4.75 | +0.77% | 131 | 712 |
| July 2026 | 618.50 | +4.50 | +0.73% | 49 | 154 |
| September 2026 | 629.25 | +4.50 | +0.72% | 3 | 28 |
| December 2026 | 643.25 | +4.50 | +0.70% | 2 | 55 |
| March 2027 | 652.00 | +4.50 | +0.69% | 0 | 0 |
| May 2027 | 642.25 | +4.75 | +0.75% | 0 | 0 |
| July 2027 | 612.50 | +5.00 | +0.82% | 0 | 0 |
While gains in longer-dated contracts reflect a positive sentiment, trading volumes remain low, indicating limited market activity in these maturities.
Export Regulations in Ukraine
Ukraine introduced an export protection program in January 2025, setting minimum prices for grain exports. These CIF (Cost, Insurance, and Freight) prices for January are:
- Wheat: $158.00/t
- Rye: $294.00/t
- Barley: $175.00/t
This program aims to stabilize export prices and protect domestic farmers from price dumping. However, it could impact global competitiveness, especially in regions with significant demand such as Asia and North Africa.
Market Drivers
- Technical Buying: The gains are largely driven by technical buying and short-term market stabilization.
- Export Demand: Strong demand from Asia, particularly South Korea and Japan, continues to support prices.
- Weather Conditions: Uncertainty regarding weather developments in key growing regions in North America and Europe adds additional support.
- Ukrainian Export Program: The new minimum export prices may tighten supply and influence global market dynamics.
Outlook
If weather conditions remain stable and demand continues, prices could see further gains this week. Traders should monitor developments in export markets and the potential impact of Ukraine’s export program on international competition.
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