After a spell of stable trading, the Indian celery market is showing unmistakable signs of renewed strength. As the consumption season draws nearer, major growing regions like Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh face declining arrivals—hinting at tighter supply in the weeks ahead. Unjha in Gujarat stands out, where daily market arrivals have dropped from 3,000 sacks early in the month to around 2,000 sacks now, signaling waning sell-side pressure. Meanwhile, demand is already picking up, and, with Andhra Pradesh’s crop falling well below historical norms, stockists are positioning for steadily rising prices. This tightening dynamic is echoed by trade across both production and consumption centers, with wholesale markets adjusting their prices upward by around 10% from recent lows. Analysts and traders anticipate further firmness ahead, although the pace of gains will likely be measured rather than dramatic.
Production in top states is uneven: Gujarat expects a robust output, while Andhra’s reduced acreage ensures that overall supply remains well below demand. All signs point to a measured upward trend, setting the stage for a seasonally strong market potentially punctuated by bursts of price recovery as stockists raise offers and speculative activity increases.
📈 Latest Prices & Market Sentiment
| Market/Exchange | Product | Grade | Origin | Last Price (EUR/kg) | Weekly Change | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi (FOB) | Celery seeds | Whole, 99% | India | 1.47 | +0.02 | Firm, bullish bias |
- Gujarat (Unjha): Spot prices up 10% from monthly lows
- Jamnagar: Trade range USD 18.07–32.53 per 20 kg (≈USD 0.90–1.63/kg)
- Kurnool (Andhra Pradesh): USD 1.93—2.41/kg, stocks limited
🌍 Supply & Demand Snapshot
- Gujarat crop: 600,000–700,000 bags; still 150,000–200,000 bags seen entering market
- Andhra Pradesh crop: 150,000 bags (vs. 200,000 last year, 250,000 normal)
- Daily arrivals:
- Unjha: Down from 3,000 to 2,000 sacks/month
- Jamnagar: 500–600 sacks/day
- Trade trend: Tight availability, especially in non-Gujarat regions; prices moderately higher
📊 Market Drivers & Fundamentals
- Production Shortfall: Andhra Pradesh’s cropped area and output significantly below norms—set to keep upside pressure on prices
- Demand Cycle: Consumption season approaching, triggering pre-festival and stockist buying
- Speculative Positioning: Lower arrivals and rising prices attracting medium-term speculative interest
- Sentiment: Mildly bullish in production regions, stronger in consuming hubs due to tightening stocks
🌦️ Weather Outlook
- Gujarat: Normal pre-monsoon showers reported, supporting late crop maturation and quality
- Andhra Pradesh: Drier-than-average spell could hamper late-ripening fields; little relief expected near term
- Forecast impact: Weather is not expected to cause significant disruptions, but risks remain if monsoon onset is delayed
🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison
| Country/Region | Est. Crop Size (bags/season) | Stock Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Gujarat (India) | 600,000–700,000 | Above average |
| Andhra Pradesh (India) | 150,000 | Below normal |
| Madhya Pradesh (India) | N/A | Tightening |
| China, Iran, Egypt, Turkey | N/A | Steady to slight moderation |
India continues to set the global tone due to its size in celery markets; exportable surplus remains constrained outside Gujarat.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Near-term prices likely to strengthen by USD 0.24–0.30/kg, particularly in non-Gujarat stocks
- Sharp spikes unlikely; steady gains expected as consumption season draws closer
- Recommend stockists and importers accelerate coverage while supply is available at current levels
- Producers/traders advised to hold stocks for gradual exit as market strengthens toward late summer
- Monitor monsoon progression for any late-season weather shocks
- Short-term buying opportunities may exist on small price corrections as arrivals fluctuate
⏳ 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (Key Markets)
| Market | Current Price (USD/kg) | Forecast Range (USD/kg) | Direction |
|---|---|---|---|
| Unjha (Gujarat) | 1.40 | 1.50–1.60 | ↑ |
| Jamnagar | 0.90–1.63 | 1.00–1.70 | ↑ |
| Kurnool (AP) | 1.93–2.41 | 2.10–2.50 | ↑ |
| New Delhi (FOB EUR) | 1.47 | 1.50–1.53 | ↑ |
