Chia Market 2024-25: Tight Inventories, Weather Risks, and Strong Demand Drive Prices Higher

The global chia market is closing the 2024-25 season on a bullish note, with a dramatic tightening of inventories and robust demand supporting elevated prices. Organic chia from last year’s South American crop is nearly sold out, leaving buyers scrambling for prompt shipments. Despite a notable expansion in cultivated area across Argentina, Paraguay, and Bolivia, the 2024 harvest has underperformed due to adverse weather—especially dry spells that hit yields and forced widespread replanting. As a result, supply remains tight, and market sentiment is firmly bullish. India’s recent harvest provided some relief, but surging demand, particularly from North America and China, has kept upward pressure on prices. Meanwhile, shifting crop choices in Bolivia, driven by Chinese demand for other commodities, and logistical quirks in Paraguay’s export routes, are adding further complexity to the global supply chain. With weather risks still looming over late-season plantings and inventories at multi-year lows, the chia market is entering the new season with considerable uncertainty and upside risk for prices.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type	Purity	Organic	Location	Delivery Terms	Price (EUR/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Uganda	Black	99.95%	Yes	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	3.59	0.00	Firm/Bullish
Paraguay	Black		No	Dordrecht, NL	FCA	2.48	0.00	Firm/Bullish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• Inventories: Prompt shipment stocks, especially organic, are nearly depleted.
• Demand: Remains robust globally. North America and China are key growth markets.
• Supply: Despite expanded area in South America, poor yields and weather disruptions have limited output.
• India: Harvested 5,000–6,000 MT; prices surged in April due to strong demand.
• Bolivia: Strong demand for Paraguayan chia for re-export to China; local farmers shifting to corn and soy.

📊 Fundamentals

• Argentina: Cultivated area up; crop projected at 5,000–6,000 MT after weather-related replanting.
• Paraguay: Plantings sharply higher (160,000–220,000 ha), but vulnerable to frost. 2025 harvest could reach 70,000–100,000 MT if average yields hold.
• Bolivia: Delayed planting, but favorable weather. Exporters sourcing Paraguayan chia for China-bound shipments.
• India: Recent harvest complete; strong price gains, especially in North America.
• Market Positioning: Speculators and traders are holding firm, reflecting tight supply and bullish outlook.

☀️ Weather Outlook

• Argentina: Improved conditions after early-season drought; risk of late-season dryness remains.
• Paraguay: Optimal temperature and humidity since mid-March, but June–August frost risk could trim yields.
• Bolivia: Steady temperatures and good humidity; no major weather threats in the short term.
• India: Harvest complete; no immediate weather impact.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks

Country	2024-25 Production Estimate (MT)	Inventory Trend	Export Notes
Argentina	5,000–6,000	Down	Early drought, improved late
Paraguay	70,000–100,000	Down	Frost risk, strong China/India demand
Bolivia	n/a	Down	Importing Paraguayan chia for re-export
India	5,000–6,000	Stable	Strong North America demand

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• 📌 Buyers: Secure forward contracts for organic chia; prompt shipment stocks are nearly gone.
• 📌 Sellers: Hold for further upside if weather risks persist, especially in Paraguay.
• 📌 Importers: Monitor Bolivian re-export flows and Indian supply for price opportunities.
• 📌 Speculators: Bullish positioning justified; watch for weather developments in South America.
• 📌 Risk: Late-season frost in Paraguay could trigger further price spikes.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Exchange/Location	Product	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Sentiment
Dordrecht (NL)	Chia seeds, organic, UG	3.59	3.55 – 3.65	Bullish
Dordrecht (NL)	Chia seed, non-organic, PY	2.48	2.45 – 2.55	Bullish

Note: Prices are FCA Dordrecht, NL. Weather and inventory risk could prompt further volatility.