Chickpeas Market Navigates Weak Demand and Plentiful Supply: Prices Near Multi-Year Lows

The global chickpeas market is entering a period of profound adjustment. After years of buoyant trade and robust prices, surging domestic crops in India and a major upswing in Australian output are converging to reshape market dynamics. For the 2025-26 marketing year, Indian imports from Australia are poised to plunge more than 50%, reducing last season’s substantial 1.4 million tonnes down to a modest 500,000 tonnes. The broader trend is clear: record Australian chickpea crops, duty-free yellow pea imports at highly competitive rates, and stronger Indian domestic harvests all dovetail to create ample supplies and exert heavy downward pressure on prices. This reversal comes as prices have already dropped about 40% from last year’s $800–900/tonne to near $470–480/tonne (CFR), and sentiment remains weak.

Traders eye government policy with caution; with India unlikely to alter its 10% duty or import quotas before March 2026, the market is likely to remain well-supplied — and Australian farmers, facing weaker demand and a possible oversupply, may start to shift acreage to alternative crops if prices do not recover. Weather in major producing countries, particularly Australia, remains a closely-watched variable, but current forecasts suggest a favorable year. All told, while risk is evident if India unexpectedly re-enters the market at scale, traders and growers are bracing for subdued pricing and a slow trading pace heading into 2026.

📈 Prices

Origin	Type / Grade	Location	Terms	Latest Price (EUR/tonne)	Prev. Price	Change (%)	Market Sentiment
Mexico	75-80, 8 mm	Mexico City	FOB	1.10	1.12	-1.8%	Bearish
Mexico	42-44, 12 mm	Mexico City	FOB	1.62	1.64	-1.2%	Bearish
India	60-62, 8 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.17	1.19	-1.7%	Bearish
India	58-60, 9 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.18	1.20	-1.7%	Bearish
India	46-48, 10 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.22	1.24	-1.6%	Bearish
India	44-46, 11 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.24	1.26	-1.6%	Bearish
India	42-44, 12 mm	New Delhi	FOB	1.23	1.25	-1.6%	Bearish

🌍 Supply & Demand

• India’s imports from Australia expected at max 500,000 tonnes in 2025/26 (down from 1.4 million tonnes this year).
• Australian exports surge 5x to almost 2 million tonnes, but carryover stocks are nearly zero as market remains unresolved on pricing.
• Domestic Indian output for the April 2026 harvest is promising, further suppressing import needs.
• Yellow pea inflows to India (from Canada, Russia, Ukraine) cap chickpea prices and add to overall pulse supply.
• Tanzania emerges as a supplier, with 170,000–180,000 tonnes of chickpeas expected and growing Indian interest in procurement.

📊 Fundamentals

• Australian chickpea crop: Bureau projects 2.1 Mt, traders estimate it could reach 2.3–2.5 Mt due to favorable conditions.
• India’s stocks: Approx. 1.65 Mt in the supply chain (including government MSP procurement).
• Tanzanian exports: 110,000 t already sold; 30–40,000 t traded with India as Pakistani purchases slow.
• Yellow pea pricing: Canada ~$340/t, Russia & Ukraine ~$330/t; remains a ceiling for chickpea prices into India.
• Australia’s export season: Forward contracts for Nov deliveries at ~$490/t, but buy-side remains cautious.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• Australia: Current weather is supportive with good rainfall and mild temperatures, indicating potential for an above-average yield. No adverse La Niña/El Niño disruptions expected in the next 4 weeks. Drought risk negligible for core chickpea belt (Queensland, NSW).
• India: Pre-monsoon rains slightly above average. July–September monsoon forecast neutral to positive, supporting good establishment for the rabi crop. No major heatwave anticipated.
• Tanzania: Seasonally stable—sufficient rainfall noted, good flowering reported for chickpeas. Minimal weather-related risk for next harvest.

🌐 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2024/25 Production (Mt)	2025/26 Forecast (Mt)	Stocks (Mt)	Notes
Australia	2.0	2.3–2.5	<0.05	Fivefold increase in exports, but stocks nearly zero going into new season
India	10.5*	11.0*	1.65	Rising output, robust government procurement
Tanzania	0.16	0.17–0.18	0.01	Expanded role in South Asia trade flows
Canada	0.34 (yellow peas)	0.35	n/a	Primary alternative for Indian demand

*includes both Kabuli and Desi types

📆 Trading Outlook & Market Recommendations

• Prices are at multi-year lows (EUR 1.10–1.62/tonne FOB; global $450–500/t), with little near-term upside as inventories and new crop supply remain abundant.
• Buyers should seek to lock in short-covering at EUR 1.10-1.17 for small calibre and EUR 1.23-1.24 for medium, watching currency and freight developments.
• Sellers advised to be patient if able (storage permitting), as further downside is limited but bounce-back depends on India re-entering at volume or unexpected weather events.
• Watch yellow pea prices for signals of broader pulse market support or further pressure.
• Monitor Indian government stance on duty-free allowances and procurement developments; any policy shift could quickly alter demand patterns.

🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast

Location	Current Price (EUR/tonne)	Expected Range (Next 3 Days)	Sentiment
Mexico City (8mm)	1.10	1.08 – 1.13	Steady/Weak
Mexico City (12mm)	1.62	1.60 – 1.65	Steady/Weak
New Delhi (8–12 mm, all grades)	1.17–1.24	1.15 – 1.25	Soft