This season, the global chickpeas market finds itself at a crossroads. Indian desi gram (chickpeas) prices have tumbled to their lowest levels in years, defying even sharply curtailed arrivals in major growing regions. Normally, such limited supply would ignite a price rally, but the current landscape is dominated by suppressive demand-side forces. The proliferation of cheap imported pea dal—especially in Eastern India—has led to widespread adulteration of gram flour, undermining demand for genuine chickpeas. Compounding these challenges, Indian traders—pressured by the prospect of competitively priced Australian black gram expected later this year—are offloading stocks at deep discounts, driving prices well below procurement levels in some markets.
While arrivals in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, and Madhya Pradesh sit at just 10% of typical levels, prices hover at $696–$701/ton at Delhi’s Lawrence Road, below the $715/ton procurement threshold. Australian supplies, though recently more limited, are still finding their way into Indian ports at $707/ton and higher. The continued influx of cheaper imported peas, both for direct consumption and as an adulterant in dal and flour, is further depressing not just chickpeas, but the entire Indian pulse market—affecting products like tur (pigeon pea) as well. Despite these headwinds, a looming domestic supply shortfall (this year’s estimated 8 million MT production against 11.5 million MT demand) and firmer international prices suggest that the market may soon find a floor. Analysts now expect a possible rebound, with prices potentially climbing by as much as $60/ton before the end of August if import dynamics remain stable.
Exclusive Offers on CMBroker
Chickpeas dried
count 75-80, 8 mm
FOB 1.23 €/kg
(from MX)
Chickpeas dried
count 42-44, 12 mm
FOB 1.74 €/kg
(from MX)
Chickpeas dried
count 60-62, 8 mm
FOB 1.29 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Exchange/Location | Product | Count/Size | Delivery Terms | Latest Price (€/kg) | Previous Price (€/kg) | Weekly Change (%) | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico City, MX | Chickpeas dried | 75-80, 8mm | FOB | 1.23 | 1.24 | -0.81% | Bearish |
| Mexico City, MX | Chickpeas dried | 42-44, 12mm | FOB | 1.74 | 1.75 | -0.57% | Neutral to Bearish |
| New Delhi, IN | Chickpeas dried | 60-62, 8mm | FOB | 1.29 | 1.30 | -0.77% | Bearish |
| New Delhi, IN | Chickpeas dried | 46-48, 10mm | FOB | 1.30 | 1.32 | -1.52% | Bearish |
| New Delhi, IN | Chickpeas dried | 58-60, 9mm | FOB | 1.30 | 1.31 | -0.76% | Bearish |
| New Delhi, IN | Chickpeas dried | 44-46, 11mm | FOB | 1.35 | 1.37 | -1.46% | Bearish |
| New Delhi, IN | Chickpeas dried | 42-44, 12mm | FOB | 1.36 | 1.39 | -2.16% | Bearish |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- India: Market arrivals in Rajasthan, Maharashtra, Madhya Pradesh just 10% of normal. Local trade below procurement at $698/ton; stock offloading increasing due to weak demand and prospect of cheaper Australian imports.
- Australia: Black gram sowing down, but exporters remain aggressive; October–November shipments offered cheaper than last year.
- Global: Canada pea prices for October show firmness, suggesting cross-commodity support.
- Demand: Extremely weak for pulses/gram flour as cheap imported peas dominate the market and adulteration is widespread.
- Other Pulses: Pea dal, used for blending with tur and gram flour, suppresses overall demand in eastern and northern states.
📊 Fundamentals
| Region | 2024/25 Production (MMT) | Estimated Consumption (MMT) | Stock/Surplus or Shortfall (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| India | 8.0 | 11.5 | -3.5 (shortfall) |
| Australia | 1.0* | — | — |
| Canada (Peas) | Approx. 3.5 | — | — |
*Lower sowing expected for 2024/25; aggressive export offers still present.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- India: Monsoon activity remains below normal in Rajasthan and Maharashtra, leading to yield concerns and delayed sowing in some pulses belts. Rains expected in next 5 days could support late-planted fields but are unlikely to offset supply shortfall.
- Australia: Favorable winter and spring rainfall so far, but some dry patches in major chickpea belts could curb yields if trends persist through August–September.
🌏 Global Trade & Inventories
- India remains a net importer, despite being world’s largest producer; cannot fill its own demand gap.
- Australia and Canada key exporters—recent years have seen volatile acreage and aggressive pricing.
- Cheaper peas entering India impacting both chickpea and general pulses markets.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Expect near-term prices to stabilize as stock tightness outweighs weak demand, but risk persists if more aggressive imports emerge.
- Traders should consider holding stocks—potential rebound of $40–$60/ton by end of August likely if imports remain limited.
- Watch for any abrupt rise in Australian export activity post-harvest; this could cap gains for Indian-origin prices.
- Bearing in mind the structural deficit in India, longer-term prospects (Q4 2025 and beyond) remain positive barring unexpected bumper crops or protectionist policies.
- Monitor pea and other pulse import flows for early signals of demand normalization in India.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Market/Exchange | Product | Current Price (€/kg) | 3-Day Forecast (€/kg) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Delhi, IN | Chickpeas dried 46-48, 10 mm | 1.30 | 1.31–1.33 | Firming |
| Mexico City, MX | Chickpeas dried 42-44, 12 mm | 1.74 | 1.74–1.76 | Stable to Firm |
| Australia (FOB) | Black gram/chickpeas* | — | Sl. higher next 3 days | Firm |
*Aussie chickpea and black gram FOB offers expected to firm further as global position tightens.