The global chickpeas market is navigating a period of steady prices and balanced fundamentals as Australian supply development intersects with active international demand. In producer regions like Australia, crops have entered the critical pod-filling stage under favorable weather, supporting optimism for a robust 2025 harvest. Timely rainfall and moderate temperatures have not only improved yield outlooks but also contributed to heightened exporter confidence. Meanwhile, limited near-term supply is keeping the market trade active and prices stable, with Australian chickpeas offered at $9.06–$9.12 per 100 kg in the export sector. Importer activity, especially from South Asia, continues to underpin the market, as India—facing tight domestic availability—is set to remain a leading buyer.
As new shipments are anticipated from October–November, and with industry sources forecasting steady acreage growth for 2025–26, Australian exporters are primed to capitalize on South Asian demand. Globally, the market is marked by a cautious optimism: weather risks are ever-present, but fundamentals point to balanced global trade for the months ahead. This report distills current pricing, supply dynamics, and key drivers—including weather and regional developments—to assist buyers and sellers in making informed decisions as the new crop cycle approaches.
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Chickpeas dried
count 75-80, 8 mm
FOB 1.18 €/kg
(from MX)
Chickpeas dried
count 42-44, 12 mm
FOB 1.70 €/kg
(from MX)
Chickpeas dried
count 60-62, 8 mm
FOB 1.25 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices & Market Overview
| Origin | Type/Count | Location | FOB Price (EUR/kg) | Previous Price (EUR/kg) | Update Date | Market Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 75-80, 8 mm | Mexico City | 1.18 | 1.20 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
| Mexico | 42-44, 12 mm | Mexico City | 1.70 | 1.72 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
| India | 42-44, 12 mm | New Delhi | 1.31 | 1.32 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
| India | 44-46, 11 mm | New Delhi | 1.32 | 1.33 | 2025-08-23 | Stable |
| India | 46-48, 10 mm | New Delhi | 1.30 | 1.31 | 2025-08-23 | Stable |
| India | 58-60, 9 mm | New Delhi | 1.26 | 1.27 | 2025-08-23 | Stable |
| India | 60-62, 8 mm | New Delhi | 1.25 | 1.26 | 2025-08-23 | Steady |
🌍 Supply & Demand Drivers
- Australian Crop Outlook: Pod-filling underway with positive weather; above-average yields anticipated if these conditions persist.
- India’s Import Demand: Low domestic stocks in India drive stronger import needs, underlining Australia’s role as a key supplier.
- Export Flow: New crop shipments from Australia likely to begin Q4 2025; exporters preparing for increased flow to South Asia.
- Global Inventories: Generally tight, which supports firm price levels but limits significant upward price moves.
- Speculative Positioning: Minimal speculative influence; trade is mostly physical and responsive to crop/driven news.
📊 Fundamentals & Country Comparisons
| Country | 2024 Production Estimate (Mt) | 2025 Outlook | Stock Situation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 990,000 | ↑ Robust if weather holds | Moderate to Tight |
| India | 10,270,000 | → Flat to Slight Decline | Low |
| Mexico | 220,000 | → Stable | Stable |
🌦️ Weather Outlook & Crop Impact Analysis
- Australia: Recent rainfall and moderate temps remain supportive. Short-term forecast points to continued favorable growing conditions for late August, supporting healthy pod filling and maturation. Risks remain if heat or drought re-emerge in September.
- India: Average to below-average monsoon in several regions keeps domestic production outlook restrained. Watch for any improvement in late monsoon rains.
- Mexico: Stable weather, with no major risks evident. Steady output expected for ongoing cycle.
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Buyers: Secure near-term needs promptly. Available supplies are modest, and imports to India may intensify competition as new crop exports pick up.
- Sellers/Exporters: Prepare for increased activity from Q4 2025 onwards. Consider forward contracts as Indian demand and weather risk may drive further price stability or upside.
- Watch Points: Monitor Australian weather into September; adverse events could trigger price volatility. Track India’s government signals for import quotas or duties.
- Hedgers: Physical positions outweigh speculative; focus on crop condition reports and major government tenders for short-term insights.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast (FOB)
| Region | Current (EUR/kg) | Forecast Day 1 | Forecast Day 2 | Forecast Day 3 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mexico | 1.18–1.70 | 1.18–1.70 | 1.18–1.70 | 1.18–1.70 |
| India | 1.25–1.32 | 1.25–1.32 | 1.25–1.32 | 1.25–1.33 |
- Price Action: Prices expected to hold steady as trade awaits Australian new crop impact and South Asian demand remains firm.
- Volatility Risk: Primarily tied to weather events in Australia and policy changes in India.
