Amid growing anticipation for the festival season and continued firm buying interest, the global chili market is witnessing another strong rally. The widely traded 334 red chili variety has surged to USD 1,920 per ton, marking a remarkable USD 60 gain in just one week. This unyielding firmness is rooted in limited crop arrivals—driven by adverse weather in major growing belts—and a robust demand pull from both exporters and the domestic market. Seasoned traders reveal that stockiest are deliberately holding onto their inventories, speculating on still higher prices. Meanwhile, the approach of festive celebrations in South Asia and critical export destinations is set to buoy demand even further, with analysts predicting that elevated chili prices are likely here to stay in the near term. For market participants, the interplay of tight supplies and lively demand is creating a landscape full of both risk and opportunity.
With lingering weather challenges, supply-side vigilance is essential as any further crop disruption could tighten markets further. This report breaks down the latest prices, supply-demand shifts, fundamental data and weather-driven risks that are shaping the chili market outlook.
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Chilli dried whole
bird eye, grade a
FOB 4.71 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
powder, grade a
FOB 4.45 €/kg
(from IN)
Chilli dried
flakes, grade a
FOB 4.42 €/kg
(from IN)
📈 Prices
| Product | Type | Origin | FOB Price (EUR/ton) | Previous Price (EUR/ton) | Update Date | Sentiment |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilli dried whole | Bird Eye, Grade A, Organic | IN (New Delhi) | 4.71 | 4.70 | 2025-08-30 | Firm/Bullish |
| Chilli dried | Powder, Grade A, Organic | IN (Andhra Pradesh) | 4.45 | 4.44 | 2025-08-30 | Firm/Bullish |
| Chilli dried | Flakes, Grade A, Organic | IN (Andhra Pradesh) | 4.42 | 4.41 | 2025-08-30 | Firm |
| Chilli dried | With Stem | IN (Andhra Pradesh) | 2.21 | 2.20 | 2025-08-30 | Stable/Firm |
| Chilli dried | Whole, Stemless, Grade A | IN (Andhra Pradesh) | 2.24 | 2.23 | 2025-08-30 | Firm |
🌍 Supply & Demand
- Limited Stock Arrivals: Unfavorable weather in Andhra Pradesh, India—home to nearly 60% of India’s chilli production—has sharply curbed crop arrivals, tightening pipeline supplies.
- Demand Pulse: Consistent buying from domestic processors and aggressive export demand from China, Bangladesh, and the Middle East.
- Stockist Strategy: Stockists are holding back inventory, expecting further price gains through the festival peak.
- Festival Season: Anticipated demand surge ahead of upcoming religious and food festivals, providing ongoing price support.
📊 Fundamentals
- Crop Inflows: Adverse weather—including erratic monsoon patterns and localized floods—has impacted key chilli belts.
- Global Chain Tightness: India, the world’s largest producer and exporter, is seeing reduced supplies which are echoing through global value chains.
- Speculative Positioning: Price-holding by traders and processors due to bullish outlook.
- Comparison to Previous Report: Price momentum has strengthened week-on-week, supported by persistent export demand and tightening stocks.
⛅ Weather Outlook
- Andhra Pradesh: Recent reports indicate below-average rainfall this week; forecasts show higher-than-normal temperatures and potential dry spells, possibly stressing late-planted crops and keeping arrivals low.
- Karnataka & Telangana: Also reporting patchy monsoon activity, raising similar crop yield concerns.
- Market Effect: Weather continues to pose an upside risk to prices due to supply fears.
🌐 Global Production & Stocks
| Country | 2024/25 Production (Est. 000 MT) | 2024/25 Ending Stocks (Est. 000 MT) |
|---|---|---|
| India | 1,700 | 130 |
| China | 350 | 38 |
| Bangladesh | 200 | Unspecific |
| Vietnam | 110 | 18 |
| Others (Rest of World) | 440 | 42 |
📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations
- Short-term: Price firmness likely to persist through the festival season amid tight arrivals.
- Monitor: Weather patterns in Andhra Pradesh and adjoining belts for any sign of crop relief or further stress.
- Stock Management: Buyers should accelerate procurement if coverage for Q4 is not secured, as further price appreciation is likely in the next 2–4 weeks.
- Sellers: Strategic holding advised until after the height of festival demand; consider incremental releases on price rallies.
🔮 3-Day Regional Price Forecast
| Exchange/Market | Current Price (USD/ton) | 3-Day Range Forecast (USD/ton) | Trend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Benchmark 334 (India) | 1,920 | 1,900 – 1,950 | Firm |
| Chilli dried, FOB Andhra Pradesh (EUR/ton) | 2.21 – 4.71 | +0.5% to +1% possible | Slightly bullish |
