China Beans Market: Tight Supply, Price Volatility, and Weather Uncertainty Define Outlook

The Chinese bean market is currently at a crossroads, facing a convergence of low supply, uneven demand recovery, and increasing weather-related risks. As we move into the heart of 2025, port inventories for mung beans and other beans remain distinctly below last year’s levels, contributing to an overall tighter market. Diverse approaches among traders—some opting for rapid, lower-priced sales due to modest processing quality and sluggish movement, others holding out in the hope of firmer prices—highlight the uncertainty on the ground.

Recent regional temperature increases have modestly improved product movement, but overall, demand lags typical seasonal patterns, and inventory drawdowns continue across the majority of merchants. Globally, price signals are mixed: while some premium categories edge higher, others, such as certain kidney beans, have softened, partly due to external pressures and shifting export flows. Weather patterns will be critical in the near term, as heat and rainfall in major Chinese (and global) production areas will impact both yields and pricing power. Traders and buyers should remain agile, as the current fundamentals signal sustained volatility, with opportunities for both buyers and sellers who navigate the market nimbly.

📈 Prices

Product	Origin	Type	Location	Closing Price (USD/kg)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Mung beans (organic, 99.5%)	CN	Organic	Beijing	1.50	+0.03	Firm to steady
Mung beans (3.8 mm up, 99.5%)	CN	Conventional	Beijing	1.41	+0.02	Rising
Kidney beans (small, black, organic 99.5%)	CN	Organic	Beijing	1.52	-0.01	Slightly weaker
Kidney beans (large, white, organic)	CN	Organic	Beijing	3.37	-0.02	Stable
Adzuki beans (red, organic)	CN	Organic	Beijing	1.58	+0.01	Steady
Kidney beans (black)	CN	Conventional	Beijing	1.50	+0.01	Steady
Kidney beans (dark red)	BR	Conventional	Brasília	1.44	0.00	Flat
Kidney beans (white, 99%)	GB	Conventional	London	1.37	0.00	Weak

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China port inventories for green (mung) beans are significantly lower than the same period last year.
• Trade attitude is mixed: Some suppliers lower prices to encourage sales on average quality stocks, while others resist, holding inventory due to slow movement.
• Demand: Picked up slightly with the onset of higher temperatures in several regions, but overall still subdued compared to previous years. Most companies are focused on reducing current inventories rather than fresh procurement.
• Inventory levels: Merchant stockpiles are generally below last year’s levels, providing underlying price support.
• Export markets: Mixed trends, with Brazil steady, and UK-origin beans broadly flat. International pressure is mild but worth monitoring.

📊 Fundamentals

• USDA and domestic reports: Chinese production for 2024/2025 is projected to be moderately lower due to late planting and area reductions. Import needs may rise if domestic stocks do not improve.
• Acreage: Spring planting in major bean regions has been delayed by cooler, wetter weather in May, but recent heat waves enabled faster early June planting.
• Speculative trends: No major funds noted, but smaller local players have upped positions on supply concerns.
• Processing quality: Varied, with some processors struggling to meet high export standards, generating a wider price band in core varieties.

🌦️ Weather Outlook

• China’s key regions, Heilongjiang, Inner Mongolia, and Jilin, have seen a mix of late spring rainfall and early summer heat waves.
• Short-term forecast (next 7 days): Expect higher than average temperatures and moderate rainfall. Heat could boost crop development, but also stress beans where moisture is limited.
• Impact: If rains follow heat, yield prospects may stabilise; continued dryness could curb 2025 output, especially for organic and late-planted beans.

🌐 Global Production & Stock Comparison

Country	2024 Production (est.)	2024/25 Stocks (est.)	Trend vs. 2023
China	1.2 million t	Low	↓ (Lower output, lower stocks)
Brazil	0.65 million t	Moderate	→ (Stable)
UK	0.09 million t	Stable	→ (No significant change)

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Short supply and variable quality may keep premium grades supported, but broad demand recovery is not assured.
• Merchants holding small stocks may find occasional opportunities to sell at a premium on weather scares.
• Buyers should secure coverage for July–August delivery amid uncertainties about next crop size and quality, especially for organic/speciality grades.
• Watch for signs of export demand pickup, especially if Brazil or UK stocks thin in Q3 2025.
• Speculative activity could increase volatility as weather and inventory headlines shift rapidly.

🗓️ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges – USD/kg, FOB)

Product	Location	11 Jun	12 Jun	13 Jun
Mung beans (organic)	Beijing	1.50	1.51	1.51
Mung beans (3.8 mm up)	Beijing	1.41	1.42	1.43
Kidney beans (small, black, organic)	Beijing	1.52	1.52	1.51