China’s Mega Purchase Shifts Barley Market: Ukraine Export Prices Stabilize Amid Tight Supply, Soft Corn, and Weather Swings

The global barley market faces a pivotal juncture this week as a major Chinese feed barley purchase—encompassing up to 700,000 tons from Ukraine—injects fresh momentum into export demand from the Black Sea. After last week’s sharp price rise, Ukrainian barley export prices stabilized at UAH 9,350–9,500/t or $196–200/t delivered to Black Sea ports. China’s contracted tonnage, priced at $240/t CIF (about $200–205/t FOB), represents nearly one-quarter of Ukraine’s total barley export potential for the 2024/25 marketing year. Such sizeable certified demand for China could escalate competition between exporters, especially as Ukraine’s harvest forecast has slipped to 4.5–5 million tons and the export quota is limited to 2 million tons—both notably below last year’s figures.

Mixed harvest conditions fuel additional uncertainty. While central and western Ukraine report better-than-expected yields, southeastern regions lag, causing farmers to hesitate in releasing new-crop supply, betting on higher prices after full harvest. However, traders are lowering bids as global prices for feed corn and wheat hover at multi-year lows, capping barley’s upside. With upcoming harvests in Ukraine, the EU, and Russia imminent, the risk of post-harvest price declines in August is rising.

📈 Prices

Exchange/Location	Product/Grade	Delivery Terms	Latest Price (EUR/t)	Weekly Change	Market Sentiment
Odesa, UA	Barley seeds (cattle feed)	FOB	0.20	0.00	Stable
Odesa, UA	Barley seeds (feed, 14% moisture, 98%)	FCA	0.22	0.00	Stable
Kyiv, UA	Barley seeds (feed, 14% moisture, 98%)	FCA	0.21	0.00	Stable

Note: Recent Black Sea FOB offers at $196–200/t; Chinese contracts CIF $240/t, netting ~$200–205/t FOB.

🌍 Supply & Demand

• China: Bought 500,000–700,000 t Ukrainian feed barley; certified, for feed use
• Ukraine: Barley crop forecast at 4.5–5 Mt (down from 5.5 Mt+ in prior years); export potential trimmed to 2 Mt (below 2023/24’s 2.477 Mt)
• Trader sentiment: Renewed competition for certified, China-bound shipments; export supply constraints likely into Q1 2025
• Farmers: Holding back early crop amid uncertainty, but trader bids are softening
• World prices for feed grains: Low corn and wheat prices will limit barley rallies; EU and Russia harvests to pressure market in August

📊 Fundamentals

Country	2023/24 Harvest (Mt)	2024/25 Forecast (Mt)	2024/25 Export Potential (Mt)	2024/25 Ending Stocks (Mt, est.)
Ukraine	5.6	4.5–5.0	2.0	~0.3
Russia	21.7	~21.0	~5.7	~2.5
EU	48.1	~49.0	~6.7	~3.8
China (import)	9.8	~10.0	N/A	Low

🌦️ Weather Outlook & Yield Impact

• Ukraine: Central and western regions report above-trend yields; southeast sees moderate drought stress, yield drag possible
• EU (France, Spain, Germany): Weather remains mostly favorable; localized dry pockets
• Russia: Good early harvest conditions, especially in southern oblasts
• China: No major weather-driven import surges expected soon

Outlook: If current trends persist, global supply will be adequate. Southeastern Ukraine’s drought risk to be watched for localized supply stress.

📌 Market Drivers

• Major Chinese demand: Long-term contracts tighten Black Sea supply
• Ukrainian harvest downgrade: Crop/reduced export ceiling will keep exporters on edge
• Feed grain competition: Corn and wheat prices exert ceiling on barley
• Speculator position: Largely flat; upside capped barring severe weather

📆 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• ⚖️ Bullish: Exporters with certified barley may fetch short-term premiums for Chinese contracts
• 💼 Hold/Wait: Ukrainian farmers unlikely to rush sales while harvest results remain in doubt
• 📉 Bearish: Prices vulnerable to post-harvest declines in August as EU and Russian supplies hit the market; hedgers should consider selling rallies/fixed price contracts soon
• 🌐 Importers: Consider forward contracting portions of Q3–Q4 demand before more downside emerges

🔮 3-Day Barley Price Forecast

Location/Exchange	Price Now (EUR/t)	3-Day Forecast (EUR/t)	Trend
Odesa, UA (FOB)	0.20	0.20–0.19	Stable to slightly lower
Kyiv, UA (FCA)	0.21	0.21–0.20	Stable

Summary: Barley export prices should remain stable but are vulnerable to harvest pressure and softer feed grain markets. Watch for volatility if Black Sea weather turns or if further Chinese demand surfaces.