China’s Record Soybean Imports Reshape Global Flows: U.S. Beans Dominate Amid Overhang

This week’s developments in the global soybean market underscore the pivotal role of Chinese demand in shaping both trade flows and pricing. According to priority Raw Text sources, China has sharply increased procurement of U.S. soybeans—purchasing 10 cargoes (600,000 tons) this week for shipment March-May, overlapping with Brazil’s peak export season. Cumulative recent U.S. soybean purchases by China are estimated at 8.5 to nearly 10 million tons, with about 6.9 million tons confirmed for China since October’s end, and a significant portion of an additional 3 million tons sold to “unknown destinations” likely bound for Chinese buyers. USDA’s latest report confirms a fresh 336,000-ton sale for 2025/26 delivery.

Paradoxically, these buying sprees come as China faces a record domestic soybean surplus and lackluster demand. Record imports from South America, combined with slack consumption, have created a domestic glut. In a strategic move, China’s state stockpiler Sinograin held three auctions last month to offload reserve beans and make space for incoming U.S. supplies. The data signals ongoing competition among exporters—especially as China appears determined to secure supplies despite its current inventory overhang. This strategy has notable implications for global trade dynamics and pricing structures for 2026 and the upcoming marketing years.

📈 Prices: Key Soybean Markets

Origin	Type	Purity	Location	FOB Price (EUR/kg)	Previous Price	Update Date	Market Sentiment
China	Yellow, organic	99.8%	Beijing	0.78	0.77	2026-01-08	Firm
China	Yellow	99.5%	Beijing	0.70	0.69	2026-01-08	Stable
USA	No. 2	–	Washington D.C.	0.47	0.47	2026-01-02	Steady

🌍 Supply & Demand Dynamics

• China’s buying habits drive market direction: Even as domestic inventories swell to record levels and demand remains weak, Chinese importers continue to secure U.S. cargoes well into 2025/26. This has caused a rare overlap between peak U.S. and Brazilian export windows, intensifying competition and pressuring global prices.
• Massive recent import flows: Estimates place China’s U.S. soybean buying spree at 8.5–10 million tons in the current cycle, with confirmed takings of at least 6.9 million tons since late October 2025.
• Reserve management: Three significant auctions last month cleared space for these imports in Chinese state warehouses, underscoring a pre-emptive logistical strategy that signals continued large inflows even as stocks rise.
• U.S. sales outlook: USDA reports show China continues to book forward U.S. soybeans, underlining a strong export pipeline despite domestic oversupply.

📊 Fundamental Data Comparison

• China: Record soybean imports from South America and now the U.S., with a domestic supply glut and subdued demand.
• U.S.A.: Robust export sales to China, with new-crop (2025/26) forward bookings, even in off-peak months.
• Brazil: Facing stronger-than-expected competition from the U.S. during Brazil’s traditional export window; potential effects if China’s demand wanes or pivots.

☁️ Weather & Crop Outlook

• Brazil: Web-sourced updates indicate the weather outlook is turning more neutral to slightly favorable for late-maturing soybeans after earlier dryness fears in parts of Mato Grosso and southern regions. A near-average harvest is expected but with lingering uncertainties on yields in some drought-hit areas.
• USA: Recent weather is neutral; U.S. crop is off-season. All focus is on competitive export shipments.
• China: Domestic growing conditions not currently a price driver; imports remain the main supply source.

📆 Global Production & Stocks Comparison

Country	2025/26 Estimated Production (‘000 tons)	Estimated Ending Stocks (‘000 tons)
USA	Approx. 117,000	9,500
Brazil	Approx. 155,000	30,000
China	Approx. 19,500	Excess/Record High

(Global estimates, for illustration; refer to next WASDE update for adjustments)

🔎 Market Drivers

• Record Chinese soybean imports, with U.S. sales surging despite a domestic supply glut in China.
• Active U.S. forward sales for 2025/26 to China indicate persistent future demand and strategic buying ahead of possible supply risks or political tensions.
• Brazilian supply competitive but challenged by both weather recovery and aggressive U.S. export campaigns.
• Chinese state auctions signal active state management of stocks and room creation for new imports.

💼 Trading Outlook & Recommendations

• Bears: Growing concerns over Chinese oversupply and weak demand may cap global prices in the short term.
• Bulls: Strong forward Chinese purchasing and manageable weather in Brazil could limit downside, particularly if Brazilian yields disappoint or logistical issues arise.
• Traders: Monitor Chinese auction activity, U.S. export data, and pace of South American shipments for trade signals.
• Importers: Near-term downside risk amid Chinese oversupply; consider phased approaches to new coverage and watch for possible price-based demand upticks in China.
• Exporters: U.S. and Brazilian sellers should leverage current Chinese demand but stay nimble in face of policy or demand shocks.

🗓️ 3-Day Price Forecast (Key Exchanges)

Exchange/FOB	Current Price (EUR/kg)	Forecast Range (EUR/kg)	Trend
CN FOB (Yellow, organic)	0.78	0.77 – 0.78	Stable/Firm
CN FOB (Yellow)	0.70	0.69 – 0.70	Stable
US FOB (No. 2)	0.47	0.46 – 0.48	Steady