The corn market in Ukraine witnessed a turnaround as the resumption of purchases by Chinese buyers halted the recent decline in prices. Global corn prices had been on a downward trend due to improved weather conditions in major producing countries like Argentina and Brazil. Last week, purchase prices in Ukraine dipped to $135-140 (€124-129) per ton with delivery to Black Sea ports. However, the return of buyers from China following the end of New Year celebrations rejuvenated demand, pushing prices up to $140-145 (€129-133) per ton.
Traders, grappling with reduced supplies amid falling prices, found themselves compelled to pay extra for expedited deliveries to fulfill contracts. On the western border, corn was bought at €120 per ton or $130 per ton before being loaded onto European trains, although demand from the EU continued to dwindle.
The increase in the interbank dollar exchange rate, driven by uncertainties surrounding financial assistance from the USA, provided support for hryvnia purchase prices, holding steady at the level of €142-145 per ton.
Corn exports remained active, amounting to 2.455 million tons for February 1-27 (compared to 2.935 million tons for the same period last year), bringing the season’s total to 15.44 million tons, reflecting a 17.8% decline from the previous year’s pace. The USDA had earlier reduced the corn export forecast for the 2023/24 season by 17.8%, from 27.1 to 23 million tons.
While March corn futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange fell by 4.2% to $157.5 (€145)per ton last week (a 10% drop for the month), they rebounded by 1.8% to $160 (€147)per ton on Monday, driven by a surge in exports from the USA.
US corn exports for the week surged by 18% to 1.242 million tons, reaching 19.49 million tons for the season, a 35% increase compared to last year’s pace. USDA experts revised their export forecast for the 2023/24 marketing year upward by 26%, from 42 to 53.3 million tons.
According to the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange, heavy rains in Argentina improved crop conditions, with the proportion rated as good or excellent increasing to 28% from the previous week (compared to 9% last year). However, in Brazil, active planting of second-crop corn, along with favorable weather forecasts in South America and the United States, is exerting pressure on corn stock prices.
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