China’s intentions to harvest a record wheat crop were dashed by heavy rains in May that flooded wheat fields in the country’s major agricultural provinces just before the harvest was to begin. The extent of the damage has not yet been determined, but preliminary data indicate that up to 20% of wheat crops were damaged and grain quality deteriorated significantly.
China is the world’s largest wheat producer and consumer. According to the USDA forecast, in 2023/24 MY it was expected to harvest 140 mln tonnes of wheat (17.7% of the world’s production) and consume 149 mln tonnes (18.8%).
A decrease in wheat production will lead to an increase in imports of milling wheat, while Ukraine’s own grain will be used for animal feed at a significant discount and will replace imported corn.
Henan province, the largest wheat producer in China, was supposed to harvest 38 million tons of grain (27% of the national harvest), but only 25% of the crops were threshed before the rains. The rains that took place in the region from May 25 to 29 were the most powerful since 1961. They affected not only Henan province but also most wheat-growing areas in central and southern China, albeit to a lesser extent.
Experts estimate that up to 30 million tons of wheat out of an expected harvest of 137 million tons have been affected, of which 10 million tons have been lost and 20 million tons have sprouted and become unfit for human consumption. In some areas, the grain is infected with Fusarium, so it cannot be used even for animal feed.
China’s Meteorological Administration believes that extreme weather will continue in June, with precipitation and temperatures in most regions exceeding the norm, which will damage crops.
Source: Graintrade